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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AC Flyer who wrote (39621)	10/15/2003 7:03:00 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

AC the way I read Jay, is that he doesn't see -based on available information today- how the telecom market will evolve in a manner that he could loot it. Perhaps this has to do with his engineering training, that makes he see how technical obsolescence of those USD250billion installed base of telecoms gear in the US will e replaced be newer technology. I think it will be slowly and steadily over a period of, yes, 20 years. Of course the pace of technology is so fast and dizzying that as soon one solution to replace the installed telecoms plant appears, before it gets mature another, and better one comes along. Note the potential gains of being the chosen technology is enormous that will keep attracting the best brains and investment to the sector. So operators always keep waiting for the next and better and cheaper solution. That goes until the plant is showing so much trouble that replacing it is must. I can make an analogy with the distribution of energy (transmission and switch gear), where the plant will be forced to modernize because it is failing catastrophically.

To: AC Flyer who wrote (39621)	10/15/2003 7:08:05 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

And a good sunny beautiful morning to you ACF Mike, <<telecomm industry>> ... I am predicting nothing of the sort, except "*possibly, only for telecom and power generation, ... meander along at the bottom, unlikely* to reach the glory day levels within the next 20 years, and so it wouldn't matter for any normal investor who leads a normal speculation life-span." You should interpret "glory day levels" as inflation-adjusted aggregate share price, since that is what matters to the "normal investor", as opposed to revenue growth. Here is a primer to a way of thought: (a) telecom service and hardware industries are in over-capacity, with little profit and tepid revenue, dictating slow consolidation (b) consolidations detracts from capital spending (c) share price over-valued at the moment relative to profit (d) telecom hardware ‘space’ being encroached upon by new players in my neighborhood, and soon to be invaded (e) hardware pricing, with standardization and commoditization, will be compressed (f) soon to imploding currency regimes around the world will not help matters (g) next couple of equity booms will not be led by telecom (h) so, buy gold and its derivatives, and secure energy and its derived assets. Chugs, Jay

To: AC Flyer who wrote (39621)	10/17/2003 12:03:16 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<You are predicting that the telecomm industry will see sub 1% annual revenues growth for the next 20 years. Hmmm. You have got to stop drinking the doomster Kool-Aid. > ACF, I got off the phone an hour ago after whining to Telecom New Zealand that their internet service is too expensive per megabyte. I'm going to switch to Woosh, where I can get seven times the data for the same price, albeit at a slower speed. But I get mobility thrown in for no extra charge. I bought a CDMA2000 phone earlier this year for about a fifth of the cost of my first CDMA phone back in 1998 which was much cheaper than my first cellphone a few years before that. Not only has the price gone down, the functionality has zoomed up. I switched to CallPlus a few months ago for toll calls after making the mistake of making a 3 hour conference call to Oz earlier this year via Telecom New Zealand, which cost me NZ$120. Now I can talk for 2 hours for NZ$2. I have invested in QUALCOMM and RoamAD which are developing technology to deliver fast and cheap cyberspace all over the place, be it voice or data. Telecom revenues might not drop because the usefulness of the data is increasing. My total spend on telecoms has zoomed from almost nothing a decade ago because it was all too expensive to use back then, when a few minutes on Compuserve cost several dollars and international toll calls were more expensive than flying there [slight exaggeration there]. Maybe total telecom revenues will increase due to 6 billion people coming on stream. But maybe it'll drop due to total spend per person dropping as competition and new technology make bit prices negligible. Meanwhile, everyone on Earth seems to want to buy those amazing phragmented photon CDMA cyberspace services. So I'm happy to stay invested and wait to see how large demand becomes. India is going nuts buying CDMA. So is China. So is Japan. Korea is already full of it. Mqurice