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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeffrey D who wrote (19570)	10/15/2003 12:59:53 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

The employment numbers are dismal, even after the massaging and smoke-and-mirrors. The statistics make no allowance for drop in wages, for instance. Good paying jobs are vanishing and ending up in India and China where you can get the same expertise for 1/4 to 1/5 of the cost. So, a software test engineer earning 75K might lose his job and a few weeks later, be picking horse doo-doo in a county fair for $6 an hour. But in either case, he is counted as "employed". In my view, Greenspan has created a Bubble Jr. When this thing blows up, I wouldn't let anybody tell me that he/she didn't know what was going to happen!

To: Jeffrey D who wrote (19570)	10/15/2003 3:25:11 PM
From: Tim Bagwell	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

noted a little bearishness in Brinker's latest newsletter Isn't that just like Brinker to leave customers making their own judgements. Why doesn't Brinker give a monthly indicator of where the model stands so customers can make an informed judgement on what they should do? Instead they are left to parse Brinker's fuzzy commentary. Don't you find it inconsistent that someone who preaches taking control of your own finances and avoiding sharks leaves his subscribers with little detail to make decisions? It flies in the face of those who think that Brinker is out to help people. It's pure greed that drives Brinker to leave out details because it forces followers to hang on his every word and come to rely solely on his capacity to make timing decisions. Or maybe I should say - incapacity. Perhaps it's because publishing such summaries would show the falacy of trying to model the stock market.

To: Jeffrey D who wrote (19570)	10/15/2003 6:01:26 PM
From: stockalot	Respond to of 42834

"Dipy, I noted a little bearishness in Brinker's latest newsletter." That is indeed true to form for Brinker. Jan 2000- Brinker is indeed the guy that was adamant while the Nasdaq was going up in early 2000, that he was "NOT BEARISH" and that his call was "NOT ABOUT THE NASDAQ", saying that "NOBODY CAN TIME THE NASDAQ". Jan Feb and March 2000 Newsletters touted a B2B fund tEFQX for up to 5% of a portfolio. He had it as a buy at 18 bucks, a buy all the way down to under 4.00 in early 2001 and then said it was a "hold". Next month TEFQX was gone, never to be mentioned on the radio or in the newsletter again. Bob said B2B was "different" and touted it while reducing stock market exposure on the broad market. Having it both ways again. May-July 2000, Brinker claims he can trade the Nasdaq 100 for 20% gain. OF course he called the trade on a Saturday, claiming to have gotten into it on Tuesday and telling people NOT to do the trade unless the Qs fell into the low to mid 70s. When the Qs went higher the next week and a caller who bought in the mid 80s called Brinker, instead of chastizing the caller Bob said " Well the caller here did the math and knows that if I make 25% on my trade he will make 10% in less than 12 weeks. Congratulations caller"--another flip flop for Bob. Having it BOTH WAYS. When the QQQs hit over 100, he told callers NOT TO SELL-that he would idenitify an exit point on the radio and then was NOT THE TIME TO SELL. When the QQQs had a pullback into the 80s Brinker in a panic laden voice told the radio audience to "SELL AT 84". The next week he said "The Trade is over. THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IN A BEAR MARKET IS CAPITAL PRESERVATION"--remember that line said as an excuse for selling the QQQs at the low of the summer. Right after the sale the QQQs again went over 100. In Oct 2000, Brinker sent his first special bulletin ever that I know of. The guy who said you couldn't time the Nasdaq told people who were already in the market to use up to 1/3 of an entire portfolio to buy QQQs. There was no date or price on this bulletin. home.netcom.com Now remember that by this time Brinker had flip flopped and claimed to have been "bearish" since Jan 2000. Yet many of those following his advice precisely could have up to 70% of their money in the market, skewed badly toward tech because of his love affair with it and claim that he wasn't talking about the Nasdaq in the original sale. Holds on MSFT, VOD, and buy on TEFQX and now the QQQs were disasterous portfolio choices. The most interesting thing is how Brinker handled this QQQ trade. Notice it is the same security as the summer trade that he sold in a panic. His reason he claimed at the time was "The most important thing in a bear market is capital preservation". Now in this Oct 2000 QQQ trade he FLIP FLOPPED and used his "We don't sell on weakness" excuse to ride the QQQs down about 75% to under 20 bucks. Like TEFQX, he rather dishonestly kept the QQQs off the books and has done his best to hide the recommendation His biggest new purchase recommendation when he put the monies he hadn't left in the market or squandered on tefqx or QQQs back in near the beginning of the Iraq War, was QQQs, yes the 100 top companies of the Nasdaq that he said no one could time and went on to prove exactly that. Jeffrey's point that he thinks Mr. Flip Flop Brinker was "somewhat bearish" is a laffer in that Brinker is always saying something contradictory that can be spun later to fool goobers who believe. I note that few of his former believers pay any attention to him at all. Looks like even the moderated Justa thread no longer takes Brinker seriously. Tells you something doesn't it? :)