Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : Millennium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MLNM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Icebrg who wrote (1891)	10/16/2003 5:12:11 AM
From: Icebrg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3044

Dr. David Fontana, PhD., joins Archemix as the Head of Program Management. Dr. Fontana has over 11 years of industrial drug discovery and development experience. Before joining Archemix, Dr. Fontana was at Millennium Pharmaceuticals, where he led an enterprise-wide initiative to build capabilities in strategic project planning and cross-functional processes. Previously, Dr. Fontana led program management for Aventis Pharmaceuticals in the U.S. Should be a sign of the pruning that is on-going at Millennium. Erik

To: Icebrg who wrote (1891)	10/16/2003 6:57:56 PM
From: Miljenko Zuanic	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3044

Erik, Numbers are fine, but what you make out of it and what are future projection/assumption? Obviously we differ here. 1. Collaborative R&D revenue are: ~22 M from J&J (40% of V development cost and ~22 M from Bayer/Aventis. 2. Going forward OTHER R&D revenue will decrease to $5-7 M/Q (from Aventis). 3. At this time I will not add any new collaborative R&D revenue. 4. J&J R&D payment will be ~20M/Q for 2004, take or add few millions. 5. At this time I will not add any J&J milestones, while cumulative it may be 60-70 M for 2004. 6. You are assuming(???) that S,G&A as well R&D expense will continue to growth in 2004. S,G&A expense will be flat per Q in 2004 (no need to increase promotion beyond current level), while R&D expense may continue to decline. Due to further cuts, better selection of the clinical candidates, and focused spending. 7. COGS will improve, due to higher level of the V sale. So, for 4Q-2004 IF V reach $80M in sale and IF I sale is $95M (I am still counting on slow grow) my projection is: Revenue: Vs-80M, Is-58M, VR&D-20M, otherR&D-8M, VM-10M (you may exclude this milestone), V(EU)r-3.7M (25% of 15M), + some small numbers(?)..=180M. Expense: COGS-25M, S,G&A-40M, R&D-110M,....=175M I will agree that my projection of 80M may be bit aggressive, but there is option for some collaborative revenue from after-PIIa collaboration or license, or some early stage collaboration. In addition option for Japan V-license. All in all, break even at 4Q-04/1Q-05 is not far from reality, imo. Miljenko