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To: Kirk © who wrote (4904)10/16/2003 12:42:28 PM
From: BWAC  Respond to of 5867
 
Re Options. I pulled this out of a certain 10Q

"We have a goal to keep the potential incremental dilution related to our option program to a long-term average of less than 2% annually. The dilution percentage is calculated using the new option grants for the year, net of options forfeited by employees leaving the company and options expired, divided by the total outstanding shares at the beginning of the year."

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Now its not LRCX, but it is a very widely owned stock which on average GAAP earnings over time sports near a 50PE.

By the time they returned your investment in earnings they would have diluted the company by 100%. Or spent the earnigns buying back stock.

Of course their cash flow would still help some as options are exercised.



To: Kirk © who wrote (4904)10/16/2003 8:10:52 PM
From: Cary Salsberg  Respond to of 5867
 
RE: "UTEK cash flow"

I think you are correct about cash flow. You are not correct about "free" shares. UTEK was very low priced and the company wasn't doing well. About the only good thing they could do for their employees was grant options at market price. If they tried to issue more stock at the depressed price it would have gone lower.

I listened to the LRCX conference call last quarter and it seemed better. Yesterday, Bagley told analysts that revenue 2 quarters out would be ~90% of Sept quarter's orders. Do the math and revenues 2 quarters out will be the same as the September quarter. It might be a good rule of thumb. but it wasn't helpful.



To: Kirk © who wrote (4904)10/17/2003 12:29:50 PM
From: John Cuthbertson  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 5867
 
"(or am I missing something in how cash flow is calculated?) "

Hi Kirk,

I didn't listen to that CC, but it seems pretty likely that the cash flow number they gave would have been the Cash Flow from Operations. That is the number that people usually cite, and that number would NOT include any money taken in from options exercises, since that would fall into the category of Cash Flow from Financing. You might want to check exactly what "cash flow" figure they were citing.

==John Cuthbertson