Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (66806)	10/17/2003 9:00:46 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Well, November and December put OI is still quite high, quite a bit of that is OOM now. So, if we swing in the other direction too sharply, it may result in "them" taking a lot of short futures positions. Then again, the same could be said after September expiry.

To: William H Huebl who wrote (66806)	10/17/2003 9:07:16 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

I think the bond market may be finally catching up with the 30% dollar decline. I kind of expect more, given the fundamentals. But right now the dollar is oversold, so if it goes down some more without a bounce, it will crash. Nobody wants that. Unfortunately, that may be unavoidable, once 10-year rates go above 4.625%. Stocks really look like a tiny bubble here, even at 2000 valuations. There is huge money in bonds. So, as that market deflates, if even relatively tiny amount rotates into stocks, they will go up sharply. That is, until people get it. When they get it (that it's not a "recovery", but a "bond crash" thing), stocks will do an 87 thing. They are already higher relative to bonds than in 87. So? The crash may be worse.