I always enjoy Pepe:
THE ROVING EYE
It's all about the Iraqi people
By Pepe Escobar
"It's all about the Iraqi people," said US Secretary of State Colin Powell. Indeed. So what does the new United States-proposed and United Nations-adopted (by 15-0) resolution really mean for millions of distressed Iraqis? The verdict is not in New York; it will be handed out in the next few days and months in the streets of Baghdad, Fallujah, Tikrit, Najaf.
The UN Security Council on Thursday adopted a resolution aimed at getting troops and cash for Iraq, asking nations to aid reconstruction. It also sets up a multinational force, under US leadership, to give political cover to nations reluctant to serve under the occupation and calls on Iraqi leaders to draw up a plan for a new constitution and elections by December 15.
Meanwhile, there are no new facts on the (embattled) ground. The Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) still controls Iraq out of its former Saddam Hussein palace-turned-bunker. The crucial transfer of sovereignty and government back to the much-lauded "Iraqi people" will happen "as soon as practicable", which is meaningless diplomatic rhetoric. The UN is promised a bigger role in the arduous political and economic reconstruction process, but only "as circumstances permit" - more meaningless diplomatic rhetoric.
There's no clear, emphatic timetable for the transfer of power - the key demand of France, Germany and Russia. There's no broader role for the UN. There's only the request for the American-appointed Iraqi Governing Council to organize its own timetable in the next two months leading to a new constitution and general elections. The consequence is that there will be no "substantial pledges" in next week's Madrid donors' conference, and no additional troops from France, Germany, Russia and crucially, Pakistan.
The key words at the UN were not part of the resolution itself - debated for almost two months. The key words came from the ambassadors of France, Germany, Russia, China, Pakistan and Syria. Even though the US blocked a UN resolution that would condemn the recent Israeli bombing raid near Damascus, and besides the fact that American sanctions against Syria will be soon implemented, the Arab republic decided not to confront the US. UN diplomats tell Asia Times Online that what was struck in New York was a sort of pact of non-aggression. Essentially, all the opponents of the American war and occupation decided to buy the Americans some more time to check whether the new White House and Pentagon tactics actually improve the situation on the ground. And that's the end of it.
For the moment the Bush administration is spinning what it considers a major diplomatic victory. But as Iraqis - especially in the Sunni triangle - made it very clear to this correspondent last month, such a tame resolution will be read as no more than the UN legitimizing the American occupation, and empowering the interim Governing Council that is widely considered as an "imported government". The "multinational force" - a new designation for what is essentially viewed by Iraqis as the American army - will remain any way under American command.
Essam Khaffagi, director of Iraq's human resources observatory and recently resigned from the American-appointed Iraqi Reconstruction and Development Council, dismisses the notion that the neo-conservative ideologues who heavily pushed for the war on Iraq dream of a more democratic Middle East.
Drawing from first-hand experience, he says what the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) wants for Iraq is a "stable totalitarian regime". "The CIA believes that democracy would bring in anti-US powers, something which is not desired by Washington." This is the same "American Saddam" syndrome widely debated in the Sunni triangle: a majority of Iraqis believe the Americans want a new Saddam, without the gruesome bits.
Khaffagi, one of 140 Iraqi experts handpicked by the White House to help the CPA, also says that his sources confirmed the CIA - whose hotel, the Baghdad, was attacked by the resistance last week - is in very close touch with top Ba'ath Party officials. This means the official American de-Ba'athification campaign is in fact a sham.
As President George W Bush will be in Thailand this weekend for the APEC summit, he will likely have a word of praise for his Thai hosts. Nearly 450 Thai troops - including 250 engineers - are already in Karbala. The Thais are visiting villages, accompanied by Thai army nurses and interpreters, explaining why they are there and asking what kind of help the locals need. If the Americans adopted this approach they would have a shot on winning hearts and minds.
As for Turkish troops - even if they go to Iraq as a "friendly factor of stabilization", in the words of a Turkish diplomat, they won't be welcomed. The recent suicide attack against the Turkish embassy in Baghdad was greeted with jubilation and dancing in the streets. The whole country, and not only the Kurds, is unanimously against Washington and Ankara. The "imported government", as unrepresentative as it is, at least has pointed to a red light: no neighboring country (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, Syria and Turkey) must be directly involved in the peace and reconstruction process in Iraq because they all have their hidden agendas. The problem is, Washington doesn't listen: Jordan has been authorized to train 35,000 new Iraqi policemen, and might also send troops.
The new ruler of Iraq is not proconsul L Paul Bremer in Baghdad any more, but proconsul Condie in Washington. National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice's Iraq Stabilization Group is now officially to blame for anything related to the enduring quagmire. But even with Rice and a new UN resolution there are no guarantees that the Bush administration will be spared from the quagmire - because it still refuses a crucial role to the UN and it still refuses to spell out a timetable for the return of full sovereignty.
Even if there is some improvement in Iraq in the weeks to come, the really big test will be in January - when the CPA plans to fully dismantle the state food distribution system, which for years supported every Iraqi with free rations of flour, rice, cooking oil, tea and sugar. The UN itself has portrayed it as the world's most efficient food network - and the main reason why there has not been mass hunger in Iraq. For the CPA, though, this is some kind of evil socialist anachronism. Some Iraqis are desperately trying to impart to Americans that large swathes of the Ba'athist bureaucracy really worked, while fearing that Iraq's national history is being replaced with another narrative, spun by foreigners, without the Iraqi people's consent.
Graffiti on the walls of an army building in Baghdad reveals the anger in stark detail: "The Iraqi faith in Saddam is burning the hearts of the Americans and British." People talk of Saddam sightings almost every day, and not only in Baghdad. Saddam's security services are back in action - including the head of the Mukhabarat himself, Tahir Jalil Haboosh, now working for the Americans. Apparatchicks like former information ministry officials now work for Fox News. The cumulative effect is of course the "American Saddam" syndrome.
Popular anger against what is considered American arrogance, lack of cultural respect and heavy-handed tactics will not be extinguished by a UN resolution. AK-47s, RPGs, hand grenades and roadside bombings are giving way to elaborate suicide bombings against American targets. As Asia Times Online has reported, the bulk of the resistance is not composed of "Ba'ath party remnants", but nationalists who want an independent and secure Iraq ruled by Iraqis. Committees of religious leaders are functioning as command centers. The aspirations of the different layers of the resistance may be incompatible, but now they are all fighting together against a common enemy: the occupying forces.
atimes.com |
