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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: TobagoJack who wrote (39729)10/17/2003 11:43:09 AM
From: pezz  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
This morning's report chased a trench and a half of WJCI @ 6.45..

<<I am not a greedy man>>

As you well know I am



To: TobagoJack who wrote (39729)10/17/2003 11:43:15 AM
From: Night Trader  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Commission Advises Congress on China’s Currency, Industrial Policies
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Contact: Bob Bean – 202-624-1452

October 15, 2003 bbean@uscc.gov

Web site: www.uscc.gov

Today the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission sent findings and recommendations to the Congressional Leadership for addressing aspects of China’s exchange rate and industrial policies that are harming U.S. exporters and U.S. manufacturing competitiveness. The Commission held a hearing on September 25, 2003 examining “China’s Industrial, Investment, and Exchange Rate Policies: Impact on the U.S.” The Commission developed its findings and recommendations after weighing the testimony of Members of the House and Senate, economists, academics, and representatives of business and labor.

Commission Chairman Roger Robinson explained “In America, people in varying capacities – business, labor, academia, the media, and government – need to better understand the almost tectonic economic forces now shaping the U.S.-China economic relationship. This Commission has been charged by Congress to help in that process.” The issue of China’s exchange rate policies has commanded much attention in particular because, as noted Commission Vice Chairman C. Richard D’Amato, “This is mercantilist behavior … and if the Chinese are practicing mercantilism and we are promoting a rule of law in China via the WTO and other international agreements, what is it that is going to bring the Chinese into conformity with these agreements?”

The Commission found that “China, in violation of both its IMF and WTO obligations, is in fact manipulating its currency for trade advantage” and recommends that the Treasury Department “immediately enter into formal negotiations with the Chinese government” over its undervalued currency. The Commission further “urges the Congressional leadership to use its legislative powers to force action by the U.S. and Chinese Governments to address this unfair and mercantilist trade practice” should Treasury’s efforts prove ineffective.

The Commission’s findings and recommendations also address China’s industrial policies, particularly as they affect the loss of American manufacturing jobs. The Commission is aware of the President’s pending Manufacturing Initiative, and recommends that this initiative “include provisions that strengthen the competitiveness of U.S.-based manufacturers in light of the growing shift of production to China, especially high-tech and R&D.”

Commissioner and September 25 hearing co-chair Pat Mulloy observed “The Commission’s hearing and recommendations must be looked at in the context of the President’s belief that our economic and national security require a stable, robust manufacturing sector that produces sophisticated goods right here in the United States.” Hearing co-chair June Teufel Dreyer added “The Commission sought to understand the factors behind the remarkable growth of manufacturing capacity in China, now labeled the ‘workshop of the world’ for the 21st century. While the global search for low-cost production of quality goods represents one factor, other factors in this growth in capacity may stem from the Chinese Government’s own industrial policies.”

The Commission’s key findings and recommendations can be found below.




Commission’s Findings and Recommendations on
China’s Industrial, Investment, and Exchange Rate Policies

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Key Findings:

China continues to follow a policy of one-way market interventions by the government to maintain its currency at a level that economists estimate is between 15-40 percent undervalued.
China, in violation of both its IMF and WTO obligations, is in fact manipulating its currency for trade advantage.
Manufacturers in China are supported through a wide range of national industrial policies, which include: tariffs; limitations on foreign firms’ access to domestic marketing channels; requirements for technology transfer by foreign investors; government selection of partners for major international joint ventures; preferential loans from state banks; privileged access to listings on national and international stock markets; tax relief; privileged access to land; and direct support for R&D from the government budget.
China’s undervalued currency and government investment strategies are having a deleterious effect on the competitiveness of U.S. manufactured goods and contributing to a migration of world manufacturing capacity to China, with a concurrent erosion of the U.S. manufacturing base.
Key Recommendations:

Recommendation: The Treasury Department should make a determination in its foreign country exchange rate report to Congress that China is engaged in manipulating the rate of exchange between its currency and the U.S. dollar to gain an unfair competitive trade advantage and immediately enter into formal negotiations with the Chinese Government over this matter. Should these efforts prove ineffective, the Congressional leadership should use its legislative powers to force action by the U.S. and Chinese Governments to address this unfair and mercantilist trade practice.

Recommendation: The United States Trade Representative and the Department of Commerce should identify whether any of China’s industrial policies are inconsistent with its WTO obligations and engage with the Chinese Government to mitigate those that are significantly impacting U.S. market access.

Recommendation: The Commission believes it is essential that U.S. policymakers have a clearer, more comprehensive, and timely picture of global investment and R&D flows to China, particularly in the manufacturing sector and urged Congress to consider establishing an enhanced, mandated corporate reporting system to capture better this information.

Recommendation: The Commission believes that the President’s pending Manufacturing Initiative should include provisions that strengthen the competitiveness of U.S.-based manufacturers in light of the growing shift of production to China, especially high-tech and R&D. The Initiative should address de facto Chinese Government subsidies, particularly those not covered under the WTO, such as tax incentives, preferential access to credit, capital, and materials, and investment conditions requiring technology transfers.

The entire hearing record and the Commission’s full findings and recommendations regarding the September 25 hearing are available on the Commission’s website, at www.uscc.gov.



To: TobagoJack who wrote (39729)8/28/2004 2:31:34 AM
From: Maurice Winn  Respond to of 74559
 
Jay, of course those bets were not your whole kaboodle. Merely a small side bet to avoid putting at risk the bulk.

Therefore, while your speculative short term zero-sum, less brokerage, gambling paid off, your total gains were a small percentage of your total nausages.

If you want to make more money on QUALCOMM, I'd say it's now a good time to do a reverse straddle triple-covered short of calls, puts and inverted cup and handle formations with put-strike in-the-money options with backed up out of the money covered calls.

For people who don't understand we technical analysis prognosticators, that means the QCOM share price is going to go down.

Uncle Al KBE is going to pummel the no-brainer idea that the US$ is done for and going to go the way of the dodo. When swarms of people make money on no-brainers, as they've done on shorting the US$ and betting on gold and oil and commodities and houses and stuff, then it's probably a good time to bet against no-brainers, because no-brains is never a good idea, meaning always a bad idea and when crowds of people are chasing no-brainers, it's better to take the opposite approach.

While QCOM will do better than other shares, because they have booming markets, $billions in the bank and a following wind with 3G just starting to take off, it'll still do a big sag as no-brainers recognize that Uncle Al KBE and the USA and US$ are not exactly done for just yet, just as Japan wasn't exactly done for after their 1990 return to planet Earth and 1990s consolidation.

I will of course offer my usual double your money back guarantee on these words of wisdom. Just because this is the internet, doesn't mean you can't mortgage the house on the strength of these pixelations and put the whole lot on a triple-inverted short strike in the money call away put option. As you have read recently, I'm always right and so are you, so go for it!

Perhaps the optimum time to do the deals is when G = Q. That should form a cusp with such a strong gravitational force intersecting with the anti-matter nature of the past being caught up yet again.

I will, once again, stand well clear and watch your profits from your prophet. You making money like that doesn't hurt me. You making money like that is like people betting on the trajectory of a hurricane heading for Florida. The bets, profits and losses don't affect the course or strength of the hurricane.

Mqurice