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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tim Bagwell who wrote (19606)	10/17/2003 2:58:33 PM
From: stockalot	Respond to of 42834

" How Brinker handled being wrong was a testament to his lack of skill and understanding.The problem I have is that Brinker misleads people into a mistaken belief that he's better than average and that he has an understanding of risk. Based on the failed trades that he stumbled through it's now a proven fact that Brinker knows nothing about risk and is a very poor trader with no real trading skills. He has now even admitted to this fact since he no longer will give short term timing tips." You are quite correct Tim. And you are certainly right that all financial advisors are wrong...a lot!!. But the degree to which Brinker fools with facts is greater than anything I have witnessed. The posts on the internet under an alias of Don Lane provided the capper for me in understanding just how this guy operates. But there are other great examples of just how dangerous the guy can be. Now anyone that followed Brinker in 2000, knows that he began pitching trading this way soon after the market fell in March 2000. "The way you make money in a bear market is to play the counter trend rallies". If he said that once he said that a dozen times a weekend. That went on until he screwed up the radio trade and then didn't say too much about it until late fall 2000 just before the October 2000 debacle. Now he described CTRs as two to four month events. At that time he described Cyclical Bull markets as 6 month to two year events in his newsletter. As you know after making the Oct 2000 QQQ call, Brinker began hemming and hawing, extending the time frame, calling a bogus new "benchmark low of 52 on Jan 3,2001" etc, until finally the time frame for his rally to occur had extended out 8 to 10 months past his call. Brinker is slick in that he interchanges dishonestly concepts of "duration" with "time frame during which an event will occur" if it suits his predictions. Brinker then gave up on calling CTRS and began to hype his next newsletter sales tool, that he was about predicting cyclical bull markets. Yep his line was: "The way you make money in a bear market is to play the cyclical bull markets". Recall at this time in 01 Brinker was still claiming the duration of cyclical bull markets were 6 months to two years. Many on the net were saying--"Wait a minute, that overlaps with his time frame (by deceptively using time frame after his call instead of duration of the event) for a CTR which he extended to 8 or 10 months. The next next month, Brinker changed the definition of a cyclical bull market from 6 months to two years---to --- 1 to 3 years. A keystroke and changing a couple words and he totally changed his definition to fit his marketing plan without anybody bringing up the extended QQQ rally call. He didn't want to hear the words MONTHS that he used repeatedly in extending the QQQ call used. Similarly he claims the cyclical bull market (who knows that until it is over) began on the day he decided it began in March of 03 at the time we clearly were going to take some decisive action in Iraq. For everyone else in the financial world and Brinker when he is not fudging, a bull market with any adjective begins from the low of the previous bear market. For a long while he wouldn't admit his naming March 11, 2003 as the beginning of a cyclical bull was....well... bull. Finally he began using his wordsmithing and describing it as 'the cyclical bull that began on the successful retest of the area of the lows" . People with legitimate market timing skills that are solid and repeatable, don't post about themselves as Don Lane and don't play word games with their subscribers. As an aside, I believe Brinker would have been much brighter to have used Oct 02 as the start of the current bull market. If things would go badly then he wouldn't feel so entrenched in wanting to hang on until March 11, 2003. We all know what happens when the market goes against Brinker's predictions. He will tell you the market is wrong and make up a spin. Example His favorite investment the last several years is obviously the QQQs, both of his last calls have included big recommendations to buy QQQs--Oct 2000 and March 2003. In October 2002, QQQs were under 20.00. In March 03 they were about 25 bucks. That's a 25 % difference in his favorite security. Anyone else believe this bull market began in March and not October 2002?