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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (7603)	10/17/2003 3:38:57 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 25522

Equipment Market Remains Sluggish, Says VLSI Online Staff -- Electronic News, 10/17/2003 The semiconductor process equipment market continued to bump along the bottom, even as chips, at least in terms of unit volumes, continued their climb in the final month of Q3. As the September quarter earnings season kicks into high gear, some equipment vendors report growing order volumes for Q3, most notably Dutch litho tool vendor ASML. But globally, while September's orders showed improvements over preceding months, in terms of corresponding shipments and forecast near-term growth, a widespread recovery isn't underway just yet for equipment vendors, suggests VLSI Research Inc. The San Jose-based market research company today reported its September book-to-bill numbers for chips and equipment. The ratio of worldwide semiconductor equipment orders to shipments hit 1.02 in September, according to VLSI's preliminary figures. Worldwide order bookings amounted to $3.5 billion, while billings for shipped orders were at $3.4 billion. In August those figures were $2 billion and 2.1 billion, respectively. Of September's $3.4 billion in billings, $1.8 billion were for wafer processing tools, $863 million were for test and related equipment, $256 million for assembly equipment, and $461 million for service and spares. While 1.02 is an improvement over August's finalized ratio of .94 –orders outpacing shipments is considered a sign of good market health -- VLSI suggests the market is essentially flat. September's bookings were at same level they were last March, while August's bookings were actually below that of may. For this month, the company forecasts a book-to-bill ratio 1.01. But in what has come to characterize much of 2003, chip orders provide a stark contrast to process equipment orders. After rising all year, last month the three-month worldwide bookings average hit $13.6 billion, according to VLSI. That's the highest so far this year and 43 percent increase year over year. The three-month rolling average of IC billings in September amounted to $12.2 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.11. VLSI and other market researchers have observed that the industry is reluctant to add capacity, even though fab utilization rates have reached as high as 90 percent or higher for advanced technology. VLSI has suggested, as fellow market research company IC Insights has, that the current situation could lead to a capacity crunch and corresponding steep cyclical ramp, much like what happened in 1999 and 2000. VLSI has raised its forecast for IC market growth slightly, predicting that it will reach revenues of $137.3 billion in 2003, or 13.9 percent growth over 2002. The equipment market on the other hand, will only see 1.8 percent growth this year to $35.6 billion, before seeing 18 percent growth in 2004, according to VLSI. VLSI Research's IC billings represent the average of World Semiconductor Trade Statistics sales data for July, August, and its own estimate for September. Its equipment book-to-bill figure represents worldwide bookings and billings for a single month. It should not be confused with the book-to-bill figures presented monthly by Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International, which is a three-month rolling average of orders and shipments North American based suppliers.