To: LindyBill who wrote (12795 ) 10/18/2003 12:10:40 PM From: Lizzie Tudor Respond to of 793622 re: real estate bubble Yeah, I know RE is a bubble... up here in N CA they *say* its a bubble but in fact many houses have gone down in value since 2000 (the peak imho) if you really want to sell something. This is the high end. Low end houses which here are in the 450 range (if you can believe that) are strong. In N Ca the stock market bubble drove our real estate. Still, this parallel between RE and the stock market bubble is significant imho and it has happened before! In the late 80s up here, wow, houses were going up 100K/year and back then, It was incredible like a frenzy. Then a terrible crash, you couldn't sell a house to save your life. It took a few years to recover from this but we did not have a great depression... how is this different from the stock market frenzy, well more people participated in stocks and from peak to trough you could make an argument that houses still had inherent value in the early 90s but is that really true if they cannot be sold? The naz went up 72% in 99 and most of that gain was concentrated in 3 mos of the year, add january of 00 to the period and you had a almost a doubling of tech stock valuations in a 4 mos period. But realistically is that money that we had in the US, available for productive means and lost, or just a mirage. I say a mirage, it was only there for such a short time, 4 mos of euphoria. This 4 mos period means the stock market bubble was somewhat overstated to me. So back on point, it took a few years to recover from the housing bust in the early 90s and I expect the same from this bubble. Thats the way it looks to me too. If we could just kick this offshoring drag off our backs we'd be going great imho. Offshoring will lose its luster soon though, it has been overdone imho.