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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Archie Meeties who wrote (1552)	10/18/2003 4:59:42 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Archimedes, <<Editorial in the FT by a Japanese banker who suggested that the best way for China to revalue would be through an incremental change, so as to minimize the effect of massive dollar evacuation. What I don't get is why, if the eventual plan was say, a 40% appreciation, would anybody wait?>> Your point is a good one. ... the Japanese banker, in the goodness of his generous heart, wants the Chinese RMB to revalue, so as to ease Japan's competitive burden in manufacturing, but not to revalue suddenly, or fast, or without warning, so as to ease Japanese losses in USD/T-bill holdings, so that he can try to front run the Chinese banker. He, of the land that once shouted Tora Tora Tora, of course understands perfectly that, should there be a RMB revaluation in the works, the Chinese bankers will have placed bets in the currency regimes, wagers in the bond markets, gambles in the stock exchanges, positions in the energy fields, and hedges in the precious metals mines, ... and then, and only then, make the defining announcement, leaving the Japanese to hold the proverbial USD/T-bill bag. Of course, this method of revaluation is what the Japanese banker does not want; but, as you know, folks do not often get what they want, they must take what they deserve ;0) If you were the Chinese banker, how would you DO IT :0? My guess is that China will only DO IT after they have gotten some of the Wang-3-Cups' mattress USD converted to PBOC gold bars and Panda gold bullion coins, and after certain preparations are made in London, arrangements are lined up in Hong Kong, understandings reached in New York, and only in the fullness of time, after much consideration, perhaps even leveraged with Japanese margin loans :0) Chugs, Jay