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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (66867)	10/19/2003 12:07:30 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

I fully understand what 10 yr might do and I agree with you that it is out of the FEDs control. That is not waht I am asking. I can see what the fed fund futures are saying and I am likely to STRONLY take the other side of that bet tomorrow. I do not think greenspan will raise the FED fund rate before the election, but IF he did it would be 1/4 point at most. A rate hike will kill housing as the 10 year WILL go up if the fed fund rate does, BUT I do not believe the inverse is true. If the 10 year goes up, there is no reason for the fed fund rate to follow. Already the 10 year is all over the place and the fed fund rate has been unchanged for how long? No one seems to want to answer my question. It is a simple one. What is the liklihood IN YOUR opinion (not the futures opinion cause I can see that myself) of Greenspan raising rates before the election. If the answer to that question is ZERO or NEAR zero or not more than 1/4 then one can make a bundle in EURODOLLAR futures or call spreads by betting that it will not happen. I do not think Greenspan is going to raise rates in an election year. If you disagree, why? M