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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Petz who wrote (103270)	10/20/2003 2:05:26 AM
From: pgerassi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Dear Petz: 110% of $954 million is $1,049.4 million or $95.4 million boost. AMD has stated that their expenses are 70% fixed and 30% variable (worst case as last known data has it at a 80/20 split). Thus additional revenue has a cost of goods of 30 cents on the dollar or 70 cents goes to the pre tax bottom line. 70% of $95.4 million is $66.78. Divide by the 347 million shares for a $0.19 additional profit per share. That is $0.10 profit after adding in the $0.09 loss (80/20 gets $0.12). The $0.09 (or $30 million) already includes interest expenses, taxes, overhead and all else. Similarly 15% gets to $0.20 (80/20 gets $0.24). To get to $0.275 (110% of $0.25 Intel Q3 EPS) you need an increase of 19% (80/20 needs only 16.7%). 20% QoQ is not outside of reason. 500K A64s instead of 1.5 million Tbreds would yield a $125 million increase. Add $65 million in flash (about 15% of Q3) and you get $190 million or that 20% needed. Pete