A New Political Gospel
South Carolina's black voters are suddenly the center of attention
By Terence Samuel U S NEWS
CHARLESTON, S.C.--The Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church sits on the north side of Calhoun Street in downtown Charleston because when it was established 138 years ago, blacks were not welcomed on the south side of what was then called Boundary Street. Today, with its elegant copper-covered steeple overlooking the Charleston peninsula, the old brick church stands as a witness to history and a testament to reform.
The first pastor assigned to the church in 1865--it was built of wood back then--was the Rev. Richard Cain, later one of the first blacks elected to the U.S. Congress. Cain, flush with Reconstruction-era optimism, once declared on the floor of the House: "Revolutions never go backward . . . . The times have changed." On a recent Sunday during the 11 o'clock service, Emanuel's current pastor, the Rev. William Smith, stood in the pulpit and picked up the theme. "As we prepare for the next presidential election, all eyes are on the New South," said Smith, urging the flock to engage in the politics of the day. This time around, they may not need much convincing. As black South Carolinians, they could have a rare opportunity to help determine the next president.
Blacks make up about 10 percent of the U.S. electorate. They vote overwhelmingly Democratic, and half of those voters live in the South. But they are more than just faithful Democrats; they are uberloyalists. When he sought re-election in 1996, Bill Clinton trailed Bob Dole among whites 46 to 43 percent, but got 84 percent of the black vote and went on to win easily. In the dead-heat election of 2000, Al Gore lost to George W. Bush by an even larger margin among whites but still managed to get more votes overall by winning 90 percent of the black vote. Democratic victory often depends on a hefty black turnout. For the 2004 nominee to beat Bush, energizing that base is a crucial task--a task that begins in South Carolina.
First, though, there's the matter of deciding the Democratic nominee, and the nine Democrats vying for the right to face Bush have their eyes on South Carolina as never before. In this new calculus, black voters here--who may account for up to 50 percent of the turnout in the February 3 Democratic primary--find themselves in an unusually influential position.
"I didn't understand why they were all of a sudden showing up here. South Carolina is a very Republican state," says Marlena Davis, a 44-year-old human-resources recruiter from Charleston. "Then I started thinking that they must think we are going to have some impact."
Indeed. The Palmetto State will be the first measure of which of those nominees can energize the black vote and could provide a breakthrough. That's important because Democrats have not won a presidential election in two generations without a southerner topping the ticket. South Carolina's ailing economy (6.2 percent unemployment in August) might also provide a look at which candidate can exploit a key plank in the Democratic strategy--turning blue-collar resentment against Bush.
Big stakes. So the Democratic winner here may be the overall winner--period. The result is that North Carolina Sen. John Edwards has pinned much of his hopes on a win here, and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry thought it important to announce his candidacy not aboard Old Ironsides in Boston Harbor, where the American Revolution began, but in front of the USS Yorktown in Charleston Harbor, where the Civil War began. Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt is counting on the support of the state's lone black congressman, James Clyburn, to boost him with black voters. Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean is looking for help from state Sen. David Mack, who heads the state's Legislative Black Caucus. Political activist Al Sharpton, who once threatened to siphon off a lot of black votes, now looks like something of a spoiler.
"You have a history of Democrats choosing their nominee based on the emotional reaction of voters in two states--Iowa and New Hampshire," says Clyburn. "But South Carolina more closely reflects the demographics of the Democratic Party. If you are only tested in two states that don't reflect the electorate, you might pass the test but you might not be ready for the big game."
The big game, of course, is the string of almost 30 presidential primaries and caucuses that follow Iowa and New Hampshire, beginning February 3 in South Carolina, Delaware, Missouri, and Arizona, and ending March 2 with California, Georgia, Texas, and New York.
South Carolina is "the first southern state and the first state with a sizable African-American population," says Edwards. It is also a state with more conservative leanings. In a recent poll by the liberal Democracy Corps, fewer Democrats in South Carolina felt it "very important" that their party's nominee support gay rights than did Democrats in Iowa or New Hampshire. And far more Democrats in South Carolina felt it important for the nominee to be religious.
While it is clear the economy will play a dominant role in the debate, some political observers believe the Democratic primary rests more on an old standby: electability. "The mind-set of the black voter right now is not about issues, but about doing whatever it takes to get rid of George Bush," says David Bositis, a senior researcher at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a Washington think tank focused on African-American issues. "[Sen.] Joe Lieberman may not have a lot of black support, but if it looks like he can beat Bush, they will rally to him."
Connections. Sitting in her pastor's office at Emanuel, Elizabeth Alston, 60, a Charleston native and former chairman of the county school board, offers a concurring analysis: "I think the impetus for getting black people out to vote this time around is just the idea of getting rid of George Bush." But so far, says Jack Bass, a College of Charleston professor and coauthor of the book The Transformation of Southern Politics, no candidate has yet connected with black Dem-ocrats. The Democracy Corps poll shows Edwards ahead in South Carolina with 14 percent, but Gephardt, retired Gen. Wesley Clark, Lieberman, Dean, and Sharpton are all bunched closely behind between 10 and 13 percent. "Black voters want a little more passion," Bass says. "It's a cultural and stylistic difference going back to the historic role of the black church."
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