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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TechieGuy-alt who wrote (103314)	10/20/2003 4:43:43 PM
From: DRBES	Respond to of 275872

re: Too many people have to admit that they were wrong In that kind of a company nobody in power is ever wrong and they got to where they are by never, never being wrong.

To: TechieGuy-alt who wrote (103314)	10/20/2003 5:45:29 PM
From: Charles R	Respond to of 275872

<Innovators Dilemma> Very good analogy. There is definitely a lot of it in the context of x86-64. From what I can tell, Intel also had a HTT kind of program that would have been out in the market by now but didn't go anywhere because of similar reasons. <INTC's Itanium was a design based on late 1980's and early 1990's philosophy. Now, the market does not value high power (wattage and performance) single chip solutions. The majority of the market is moving towards small, high (if not the highest) performance but low-medium wattage clustered solutions. But INTC's investment in it is preventing them from writing off 5 Billion $$'s and going the AMD way. Too many people have to admit that they were wrong. It happened with Rambus, and it's going to happen on a much larger scale with Itanium.> I think this understates what Intel is doing and can do. Look at how Intel woke up to the power issues on laptop and used Centrino to pretty much bury Crusoe. (and now doing the same thing on the server side with blades) Don't underestimate the power of 80% market share. Because of that huge market share and manufacturing capacity, coupled with a 2-3 quarter process lead over the nearest competitor, Intel can be an year behind competition and out-manufacture and out-ship competition in the first quarter of two of product introduction. The fundamental truth of the semiconductor business is that this business is all about units.

To: TechieGuy-alt who wrote (103314)	10/20/2003 6:35:17 PM
From: Petz	Respond to of 275872

But INTC's investment in it is preventing them from writing off 5 Billion $$'s and going the AMD way In an emotional and prestige sense, this is very true. But Intel doesn't capitalize R&D (neither does AMD), so if they declared an end to Itanium tomorrow, there would be no huge charge to earnings. Certainly, there would be some, since they probably have hundreds of engineers (hw and sw) & marketeers that are useless for anything else. Anyway, I hope they actually try to make a competively-priced Itanium desktop chip, because I think its an exercise doomed to failure. Petz