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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (12118)	10/20/2003 9:21:44 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95406

From Briefing.com: Stocks bounced around for most of the session before closing higher, reflecting investor uncertainty about the direction of equity markets. Investors are reluctant to buy with company earnings generally being sufficient to sustain current valuation but not a material move higher. At the same time, investors are reluctant to sell on the cusp of what is playing out to be a stable economic recovery and further earnings upside. Expect more of this sideways action and uncertainty as we wade through the flood of earnings. The deluge will only worsen next week under the heavy flow of economic data including home sales on Monday, durable goods order, consumer confidence data and the FOMC meeting on Tuesday, followed by initial unemployment claims on Thursday and personal income and spending, and sentiment data on Friday. As we have been saying since the beginning of October, evaluate company fundamentals against valuation and take opportunities to adjust your portfolio in view of the latest company data. With valuations as they are, particularly in techland, investors need to move beyond the story. Only those companies that deliver on or at least make material progress towards delivering on a combination of growth and margins at least sufficient to sustain current valuation will and should retain investor interest. We have tried to provide this perspective in our earnings previews and reviews. The latest companies to do so: Lexmark (LXK 74.00 +6.75) and Texas Instruments (TXN 25.67 +0.71, +1.84 after hours). We'll come back with post report assessments for both companies. We note that, for traders and investors alike, there is ample opportunity post the earnings report to buy into companies that deliver on that requisite combination of growth and margins. Over the coming weeks, we'll identify additional investment opportunities within technology that demonstrate improving operating performance and that we think offer a favorable risk/reward profile.--Ping Yu, Briefing.com 6:13PM Monday After Hours price levels vs. 4pm ET: A number of better than expected earnings reports have lifted the after hours trade higher, where the S&P futures, at 1047, are 3 points above fair value, and the Nasdaq 100 futures, at 1419, are 8 points above fair value. Upside earnings guidance from Texas Instruments (TXN 27.50 +1.83) in particular has supported the upbeat tone of trading. Specifically, the semiconductor giant topped the Reuters Research consensus EPS estimate on revenues that increased 8% to $2.53 bln (consensus of $2.44 bln). Gross profit margin also improved 3.2% sequentially and 3.6% from the prior year quarter. For Q4, Texas Instruments sees revenues at $2.49-2.70 bln and EPS at $0.14-0.19, both of which are above the consensus expectation. Competitors of TXN such as AMD and INTC have traded higher off the encouraging forecast. Shares of Altera (ALTR 19.95 +1.20) have also soared in the extended session thanks to a well-received Q3 (Sept) report. EPS nearly doubled, to $0.11, and met the Reuters Research estimate. Revenues rose 16%, to $209.4 mln, due in part to a 10% sequential rise in new product sales. On its conference call, Altera said that revenues should increase 2-5% sequentially, to approximately $213.5-219.9 mln (consensus of $219.7 mln) and that FY04 (Dec) gross margins should fluctuate between 65-66% on a quarterly basis. XLNX - another semiconductor company that specializes in programmable logic devices (PLDs) - has advanced 2% in the after hours. Silicon Laboratories (00C0 51.80 -1.85) is another stock that has benefited from buying interest off its Q3 (Sept) report. The designer and developer of proprietary, analog-intensive, mixed-signal integrated circuits (ICs) topped Wall Street's top and bottom-line consensus forecasts, and went on to issue its outlook for Q4 (Dec). The company expects revenues of $92-95 mln and EPS of $0.30 to $0.32 (excluding items) as compared to the consensus of $79.9 mln and $0.26, respectively. j2 Global (JCOM 38.85 -4.99) stock, however, has gotten slammed following its warning for Q4 (Dec) and FY03 (Dec). After turning in a Q3 (Sept) report that actually exceeded consensus estimates, the provider of outsourced, value-added messaging and communications services said that Q3 and FY03 revenues should be approximately $20.3 mln and $71.4 mln, respectively, and that Q3 and FY03 EPS should be $0.31 and $1.03, respectively. All forecasts were below the Reuters Research consensus estimates. Finally, Edwards Lifesciences (EW 29.73 -0.19) missed the Reuters Research EPS and revenue estimates in its Q3 (Sept) report, and also issued its revised projections for FY03 (Dec). Management noted that the company would fall short of its 7-9% underlying sales growth goal, but said that it still anticipates full year 2003 earnings to be $1.56-1.58 - above the consensus forecast of $1.54. For complete coverage on these, and other developments, be sure to visit Briefing.com's In Play, Earnings Calendar, and Guidance pages. -- Heather Smith, Briefing.com 6:15PM Semi equipment book-to-bill ratio rose to 0.95 : -- Update -- Semi equipment industry book-to-bill ratio rose 0.95 in September, up from 0.92 in August and in line with Moors and Cabot's estimate of $0.95. Bookings rose to $761, up 4% from the revised August level of $732 mln. The Billings average rose to $804 mln, 1% above the revised August level of $792 mln. 4:59PM Altera provides FY04 gross margin guidance (ALTR) 19.67 +0.92: -- Update -- On call, management indicates that gross margins in FY04 are expected to fluctuate between 65-66% on a quarterly basis. 4:57PM Ametek beats by $0.07, ex items; guides in line for Y03 (AME) 46.92 +0.23: Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.71 per share, excluding a $0.06 charge, $0.07 better than the Reuters Research consensus of $0.64; revenues rose 4.2% year/year to $267.8 mln vs the $273.6 mln consensus. Co. sees Y03 (Dec) EPS of $2.60, estimate is $2.60. 4:48PM Texas Instruments reports Q3; guides up for Q4 (TXN) 25.67 +0.71: Co. is reporting Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.25 per share, which includes a $106 mln investment gain, $56 mln restructuring charges, and is not be comparable to the Reuters Research consensus of 0.09, we are in contact w/ Reuters for a comparable; revenues rose 8.3% year/year to $2.53 bln vs the $2.44 bln consensus. For Q4 co. sees revenues to be in the range of $2.49-2.70 bln, estimate $2.47 bln and EPS $0.14-0.19, estimate is $0.11. 4:13PM TASER Intl beats by a wide margin, guidance above consensus (TASR) 43.60 +1.60: Reports Q3 (Sep) diluted earnings of $0.25 per share, $0.19 better than the Reuters Research consensus of $0.06; revenues rose 217.7% year/year to $6.1 mln vs the $3.4 mln consensus. Co expects net sales of $20.0 mln for the year, up from original 2003 guidance of $13.0-$15.0 mln, and consensus of $15.5 mln; co also is "hoping" to close the year with earnings per basic share of $1.00, vs the Reuters Research consensus of $0.35 (one analyst) and First Call consensus of $0.52 (two analysts), and it is not clear if these numbers are basic or diluted. 3:29PM Texas Instruments Earnings Preview (TXN) 25.42 +0.46: -- Update -- Texas Instruments reports its Q3 after the close today with Reuters Research consensus earnings of $0.09 per share and revs of $2.4 bln. Merrill Lynch expects revenue of $2.45 billion, in the middle of TXN's revised range, but no more than that. Firm notes investors who want to participate in the wireless handset recovery have also turned a "blind eye" to TXN's weak record on cost control. Merrill notes the co needs to show a much more consistent ability to control its operating costs in an "improving environment" in order to support the current earnings multiple and reiterates its Neutral rating ahead of the report... For additional commentary on the TXN earnings report, see Briefing.com's Stock Brief page. 2:48PM Altera Earnings Preview (ALTR) 18.50 +0.05: Altera reports its Q3 after the close today with Reuters Research consensus earnings of $0.11 per share and revs of $210.2 mln. Pacific Growth believes the co will report revs at the low end of 1-4% sequential growth and meet the firm's EPS estimate of $0.11. For the DecQ, firm believes the co will guide for low-to-mid single digit growth given the seasonal uptick in Q4. Ahead of the report, Friedman, Billings, Ramsey is lowering estimates, as qtr is seen at the low end of the range. Firm takes its Q3 revenue and EPS estimates from $213.5 million (up 3.5% sequentially) and $0.11 to $208.3 million (up 1.5%) and $0.10; believes weakness has continued thus far into Q4 and expects co to guide Q4 revs flat to up slightly on the conference call . For 2003, FBR lowers est to $0.37 from $0.39 (consensus $0.39). 1:03PM Network Appliance may announce partnership with IBM - Goldman Sachs (NTAP) 25.67 +0.67: Goldman Sachs expects to finally hear more about NTAP's long sought after NAS gateway agreement with IBM in the coming weeks; although firm suspects the terms of any deal with IBM will be somewhat less favorable than with HDS, this would still be a notable positive for NTAP and would be incremental to ests; also, firm says some sources suggest that recently forecast demand for the gFiler NAS head from HDS may be above NTAP's prior expectations. BTU Int'l (BTUI) 4.46 +1.50: Needham upgraded BTUI to Buy from Hold with a $7 target following the announcement of the company's Q3 earnings. The co is one of the lowest valued in the analyst's universe with a price to forward sales of less than one and 1.3 times book value. It is selling at 0.2x prior peak sales compared to 2.4x for the industry average. Firm's $7 price target computes to 50% of prior peak sales. biz.yahoo.com Thanks for the updated tables Don! RtS