This is why Conservative "Pros" are licking their chops at the sight of a Dean Candidacy. Remember "Easy Rider Rifle Racks?" Alexander argued that President Bush has established a connection with many of his constituents, who drive around his rural, sprawling district in pickup trucks with gun racks. "The Hill"
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Dems fret over Dean coattails
By Hans Nichols
Vulnerable House Democrats are worried that Howard Dean’s negative coattails will whisk them out of office in 2004.
The incumbent lawmakers — especially those from culturally conservative Southern states — are concerned that if he is nominated, the former Vermont governor’s antiwar, pro-gay positions will create a national mood that will make it more difficult for Democratic incumbents to keep their seats, let alone win back the House.
While many of these Democrats have proved their ability to win in seats that Republican presidential nominees typically carry by 10 or more percentage points, they are beginning to wonder how much of a point spread they’ll need to cover to retain their seats should Dean’s campaign for the presidential nomination succeed.
Of the 20 incumbent Democrats designated by their party’s leadership for special funds, so-called “Frontline Democrats,” one has endorsed Dean: Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.).
Three others have made early endorsements — Rep. Max Sandlin (Texas) is backing Rep. Richard Gephardt (Mo.), Rep. Dennis Cardoza (Calif.) is supporting Sen. Joseph Lieberman (Conn.) and Rep. Jim Matheson (Utah) is for retired Gen. Wesley Clark — while the rest plan to wait until the nominee is all but selected in late March or early April.
“If Dean were the nominee, it would make it a lot tougher on me,” said Rep. Rodney Alexander (D-La.), who hasn’t endorsed a candidate.
Alexander argued that President Bush has established a connection with many of his constituents, who drive around his rural, sprawling district in pickup trucks with gun racks.
“I can’t find many of them with Dean stickers on their trucks,” said Alexander, who will run for reelection in a district that Bush carried 57-40. “General Clark would make it easier to win. For sure.”
Alexander estimated that he will have “to do 10 points better than the nominee.”
He added, “I am not going to be out there waving the banner for Dean.”
Another Frontline Democrat, one from the Midwest, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said: “It matters who’s at the top of the ticket, and no matter how independent we think we are, our fates are tied to his.
“I could see both Dean and [Sen. John] Kerry [Mass.] creating real problems in my district, especially on the cultural issues.
“Not so much the war, but more on the gay marriage stuff, with Dean. I don’t need it any harder.”
Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D-R.I.), who ran the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) in 2000, confirmed that many of the vulnerable Democrats are getting nervous about how Dean will influence tight congressional races.
“Rodney speaks for a lot of people,” Kennedy said, adding, “That’s the reason I support Gephardt, because he plays well in all sections of the country, not just the Northeast or the West.”
But other Frontline Democrats claimed that their reelection had little to do with who was atop the national ticket and was entirely contingent upon their relationship with their constituents.
In the 2000 election, 35 Democrats won in districts that Bush carried while 27 Republicans won in districts that voted for Democrat Al Gore, said Greg Speed, spokesman for the DCCC.
Even among Democrats who insist that they’ll be able to buck a national trend, there is concern about how their party’s nominee will affect non-incumbent challengers.
“I’ll still win in a Republican district,” predicted Rep. Lincoln Davis (D-Tenn.). He argued that that his cultural conservatism gave “voters a reason to come back home and vote for a Democrat.”
But, he added, “If they’re non-incumbent, there are some difficulties with who the nominee is, if he’s out of touch in the South.”
Rep. Robert Matsui (Calif.), chairman of the DCCC, suggested that it’s too early to predict how long the nominee’s coattails will be — either negative or positive.
“I think we can win with any of the top five candidates,” he said. “These are all smart members, they’ll know when to be with their national candidate.”
He cautioned that challengers, both Democrats and Republicans, were more susceptible to national drifts.
Matsui added: “When [then-Sen. George] McGovern [D-S.D.] won [the nomination] in ’72, there was no question that there was an impact on the congressional level.”
Some Republicans seemed to relish the possible effect a Dean candidacy — and his presumed negative coattails — could have on down-ballot races.
Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.), a former head of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said that if Dean is the nominee, “that may create a national atmospherics that is very favorable in House races, especially on the cultural issues in the south.”
Lawmakers said that ironically, in Bush’s native Texas, Frontline Democrats are less concerned about who their party’s nominee will be. Not only have they proven that they can convince their constituents to split their vote between a Democrat for Congress and a Republican for president, but right now, they are worried about the GOP redistricting efforts that aim to drastically redraw their seats.
“My voters have a tendency to make up their own mind,” said Sandlin, whose current seat went 64-36 for Bush.
The Dean campaign did not return a request for comment by press time.
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