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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (39892)	10/21/2003 9:26:25 AM
From: Condor	Respond to of 74559

Hi Elmat, The whole concept of global population dramatically decreasing is fascinating and worthy of much thought. It is something that would not have occurred to me to contemplate. The ramifications (if the theory is proven true) are indeed profound. Thanks for bringing it up. Cheers C

To: elmatador who wrote (39892)	10/21/2003 9:44:55 AM
From: AC Flyer	Respond to of 74559

>>The first population to peak is Japan.<< Japan gets one last hurrah, as their Echo Inverse Baby Boomers reach their peak spending years starting around the end of this decade. census.gov After that, Japan will be a model for what is to come for much of the rest of the world to a greater or lesser extent. It'll be an economic world that's hard for us to recognize. Physical assets - houses, cars, etc. - will become increasingly inexpensive, while services that require human labor will become more and more costly. Forget about getting your (Japanese) house painted and no more delivery sushi. Real estate ownership will be viewed as a mug's game, as everyone will know that house prices never go up.

To: elmatador who wrote (39892)	10/21/2003 9:53:52 AM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

China has a major - huge, actually - discontinuity in their population pyramid also, thanks to the one-child policy implemented in 1979. census.gov This'll likely provide a major economic surprise. By about 2013 when the US economy is thoroughly tanking and everyone is convinced that the Chinese are about to take over the world, just as the Japanese were going to do in 1988, the Chinese economy will go over a huge demographic cliff. We will have virtually simultaneous 15 year recessions in two of the most important economies on the planet. That's something to look forward to! Demographics is destiny.