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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Chas. who wrote (30350)10/21/2003 11:15:46 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467
 
so far, job growth is minimal and at low pay scales
I hear of many stories where top jobs are shed, replaced by low jobs
Asian outsourcing is accelerating, while our unemployed run out of benefits
so our jobless rate seems stable, when it is worsening
the service sector is now horribly vulnerable to high pay jobs, with high skilled required, all going to Asia

expect more job losses

inflation needs to remain neutral
(AGAIN, NOT DEFINED OR REFERRED TO PROPERLY)
it is not, and will not
inflation is astonishingly high, i.e. Fed pumping
the effect universally will be price inflation across the entire spectrum
a weaker USDollar will continue almost forever (MAYBE TO ZERO)
i.e. commodities, energy, Asian imports, and soon domestic internals (but without pricing power)
oil cannot seem to stay under $30 ever ever ever
this winter watch natural gas shoot toward $10

rates will not remain low
higher rates will first be triggered by the deceptive delusion that the economy is picking up
then unwound bound speculation will take rates even higher
then Asian Treasury selling will take rates even higher again

ISI group speaks about hope, not reality
they spew junk about past data, without noting zero resemblance to past cycles now
they sound like hacks preaching hope and worthless past patterns having no relevance

we have responded to the most colossal federal and monetary stimulus in the history of the world, for a single nation
that is right, the history of the world
we are seeing minimal results
IF THE USGOVT OR FED RELAXES FOR A SINGLE QUARTER, AND REDUCES THE MONSTROUS STIMULUS, THE US ECONOMY WILL FALTER QUICKLY

/ jim