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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: elmatador who wrote (39930)10/21/2003 7:07:23 PM
From: EL KABONG!!!  Respond to of 74559
 
Hi elmatador,

Keep away from telcos, KJC!

Oh, lest anyone misunderstand my earlier question on BT Group (formerly British Telecommunications) I'm not "into" any telephony plays right now. I'd advise everyone to steer clear of them until the overall debt situation is resolved, either by paying it off or by going through bankruptcy, makes no difference to me.

That said, my question on BT Group was asked largely because BT Group has "sold off" and is now way below book value (excluding long term debt). I'd consider BT a long term, speculative play if it weren't for their enormous debt balance, reflective of the debt problems for the industry as a whole.

BT Group "abandoned" wireless some time ago now, in favor of fixed-line telephony services, basically the same "mistake" made by telephony companies in the USA, in particular the RBOCs and AT&T. BT Group has recently contracted with a third-party to provide wireless services for its customer base, estimated to be roughly 70% (or higher) of the UK. Whether fixed-line or wireless, BT still dominates telephone communications within the UK, and is strongly influential outside of the UK. Therefore, BT Group would appear to be a "good" speculative play for the long term, if it weren't for that pesky debt problem...

KJC