Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (1613)	10/21/2003 7:27:21 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

Haim there is ZERO liquidity in those bid/ask spread is 20% Quite literally Eurodollars are the most liquid financial instrument on this planet. I could buy 10,000 of eurodollar futures or calls or puts and no one would bat an eyelash. It is quite staggering really. I bought spreads (one might think those might be hard) but was done in 1 second flat Of course I did a mere 32 but I really have no doubt I could have done 5,000 spreads in the same second. very simple spread buy 88.00 sell 88.25 how I got this for 6 ticks and can make 19 is beyond me To make 1925 per contract (475) I am risking 625 (150) To be right all I need is for interst rates to not go up by more than 1/4 by election time. Perhaps someone knows something but I bet if interest rates change at all it will be DOWN as this rally in equities peters out. I have no idea what the 10 year will do, it will probably be all over the map, but do you really think greenspan is going to raise rates here and risk killing housing in front of an election? If I had more funds (on those odds) I would have bought 100 of those spreads. Hell I bet you could have bought 1000 of them or more. Try that with CBOE options and see what kind of spreads you get. I believe those spreads closed at 7.5 but not positive, nor do I care. The beauty of this play is that I really do not care what anyone says or what futures do in the meantime or anything else. The ONLY thing that matters is an actual rate hike. Snow can BS all he wants, but until it happens I will be right in the end. In futures I could get wiped out, in spreads I have a predefined risk. All I need is for interest rates not to go up and I make a 3-1 return. In fact I think I have a 1/4 cushion (depending on when that 1/4 were to happen). Mish

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (1613)	10/24/2003 12:39:01 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

More from Heinz Date: Fri Oct 24 2003 11:56 trotsky (Apollo, 10:11) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved well, that's another point of course...the budget deficits of France and Germany are far lower as a percentage of GDP than the current US budget deficit, and the Euro also has the interest rate differential in its favor. however, i think the deficits are the least important thing here...the trade surplus , the rate differential and the ECBs narrow mandate are surely more important. after all, Japan's huge deficit doesn't prevent the Yen from being a strong currency.