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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: steve harris who wrote (103459)	10/22/2003 1:52:19 AM
From: Epinephrine	Respond to of 275872

RE:<Intel isn't late to a party that hasn't started.> Steve, While I love your analogy I have to differ with you on one key point. I believe the party has started. It's just not in full swing yet. For every party to which there are invitees there is someone who arrives first. Perhaps you could say that the party hasn't properly started until a critical mass of invitees arrive and the merriment begins in earnest but that would be a pretty arbitrary designation. How many present invitees make an offical party? one, two, ten, twenty? Or are you saying that a party doesn't start until the guest of honor arrives? (Microsoft). Another key point is that Intel is not technically an invitee. The way I look at is that at this point it's AMD's party and they have invited a bunch of "people", some of them have arrived and some of them have called from their cell phones and said that they are gonna be a little late but that they are in their cars and on their way. Intel is not an invitee so they can't conceptually be late at all. What they can do, and what is the significant danger in my mind, is that they can crash the party and announce in a loud voice that they are having a party too and their's is much more swanky. AMD is grilling hamburgers but Intel promises filet mignon. (not talking about technology here, I'm talking about volume and market share, AMD has ground beef market share and Intel has filet mignon market share). AMD will say "hey don't leave we have a really cool new party game to play" (AMD64), then Intel can either say "hey we have the same game and filet mignon" (Intel does an AMD64 compatible solution), or they will maybe say "hey forget the party game we have a heated outdoor swimming pool and filet mignon" (Intel makes their own x86 compatible 64 bit solution). Either way if Intel steals AMD's guests then AMD, who spent all their money on party supplies, may not be able to afford to have another party. But if AMD retains it's guests and more guests arrive as planned then they may be the ones serving filet mignon at their next party! Epinephrine