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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (117355)	10/21/2003 10:47:42 PM
From: marcos	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

'.. why it is you don't think helping NK to become a modern state will not lead to a diminished will of its corrupt leaders to spill blood with the end results of their eventual permanent change for the better?' How many dictators can you name who have had this sort of epiphany? .... list is pretty short, i can't think of any ... they die or they get deposed ... mostly they die, the number of Napoleons who make it to their Elbas with limbs and faculties intact is not great .... Idi Amin, there's one, he hid out in Saudi for years after getting deposed ... did he have an epiphany, no i betcha he had cold shivers lots of times though This one Kim of NK does not care in the least about the NK people ... has this been posted? - 'The Last Emperor' - nytimes.com ... eleven pages, but worth it In this case i think the democracies should bide their time, be cautious, keep doing what you can to preserve life of the SKs, and keep watching for an opening, take this individual out when and how it is practical to do so .... NOT one nation mouthing up 'axis of evil' idiocies and/or trying to roll tanks over the place, this was stupid in the case of Iraq and would be even more so in the case of NK, it would doom five millions to a fiery death for sure .... it is a hard case, i think it our responsibility and in our interests to take action, however the first rule is 'do no harm', or at least as little harm as you can .... it will take a while, maybe years before there is an opening .... there must be a military deterrent ready to strike if necessary, and only if necessary - some way of neutralising those eleven thousand pieces of artillery trained on Seoul, at the first shot they fire, you need that, can't use nukes as the city is so close, and no one can deliver that much napalm that quickly It is a tough nut .... we could get lucky and the guy croaks on his own, the regime disbands, no shots fired ... failing that, there could come decisions like the one Truman had in Aug 1945, where large numbers of people are going to die in any case

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (117355)	10/22/2003 4:45:27 AM
From: frankw1900	Respond to of 281500

Can you tell me why it is you don't think helping NK to become a modern state will not lead to a diminished will of its corrupt leaders to spill blood with the end results of their eventual permanent change for the better? Your question supposes the ruler of N Korea wants modernity. He actively resists it. The ruler of Korea doesn't want the country to be modern. He wants it to be an expression of his personality. He is in the tradition of Stalin, Mao and Pol Pot. He can only be forced to it and I doubt that's possible for any country to do, except China, and I expect it's going to be exremely difficult even for the Chinese. So far it's been pretty hard for them to get Kim to behave even a little bit reaonably. They had to cut off the heat just to get minimal cooperation. Kim keeps trying to get an exclusive arrangement with the US because the real danger to his power is China. In his neighbourhood the real super power isn't the US, it's China. Every year China grows more properous, powerful and, most important, modern, and every year his intransigent behaviour brings him more in conflict with Chinese interests. As a stop gap the US can just buy the nukes from Kim but long term that's no solution unless the world, whether it be US or China, gets real access to the country. It's far more likely and reasonable the Chinese get access and start the process of subverting the regime - slicing it off from the country. Whether it be China or the US, Kim understands the threat and holds out against access. What do you suppose Kim's response will be if the Chinese tell him to shape up or they'll come and slap him around? It will be the same as it would if the US laid the same trip on him. It will be the same if, (very unlikely), his starving, debilitated, terrorized subjects go into the streets. Attack South Korea. It's the only action he can take. Not only is SK a huge trading partner of both China and US but it's part of the mutual "family" and 5 million dead S Koreans is unacceptable to both countries. The US government has done the right thing in getting alongside China with this problem. It might not have been possible ten years ago - things are changing so fast in China - but it is now.