Will It All Come Down to Florida?
By Terry M. Neal
washingtonpost.com Staff Writer
Wednesday, October 22, 2003; 12:00 AM
The Democratic presidential contest appears as muddied as ever, with nothing close to a consensus candidate yet emerging and large numbers of primary voters still uninspired and undecided about who should challenge George W. Bush next year.
One poll released this week, by independent pollster Zogby International, suggests that the overwhelming favorite of likely Democratic voters is "Not Sure" with 38 percent, followed by four candidates bunched up within the margin of error: former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean with 12 percent; retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark with 10 percent; Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) with 9 percent; and Sen. Joseph Lieberman (Conn.) with 8 percent.
True enough, national polls matter less at this point in the game than polls from individual early voting states. But the picture is murky there as well, polls show. Rep. Richard Gephardt (Mo.) is leading Dean narrowly in Iowa. Dean leads the pack in New Hampshire, but Kerry might be gaining on him. Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) is leading the pack in South Carolina, but doesn't seem to have caught on elsewhere. Clark, Dean and Lieberman appear to be battling it out in Arizona.
With no candidate able to claim a clear advantage thus far, and with the departure of Sen. Bob Graham from the race, the remaining candidates suddenly see Graham's home state of Florida as in play and important -- even if the state doesn't vote until March 9.
Florida has become important for two reasons. First, at least a couple campaigns have begun to consider a scenario that cuts against the grain of conventional wisdom about next year's front-loaded campaign calendar. Under that scenario, at least two candidates are still battling it out when the Florida election finally rolls around in March. That scenario is still considered unlikely, but increasingly possible. Second, and more likely, is that a December straw poll at Florida's state party convention could draw about 3,000 voters and set expectations for early primaries.
Bill Clinton won the Florida straw poll in 1991, a victory that was seen as boosting his credibility in moderate southern states.
Ah, Florida . . .
The good folks of the Sunshine State are not happy that their primary is scheduled for March 9. Not only will the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary be long past, but more than two dozen other states and the District of Columbia will have voted by then. In fact, 12 states, including California, Texas and New York, hold their contests just one week earlier. So to keep their state politically relevant, leaders of the Florida Democratic Party are considering going ahead with their usual pre-presidential year straw ballot at their annual convention Dec. 5 to Dec. 7 despite the strong objections of the Democratic National Committee.
True to its reputation for being a controversy magnet, Florida is right in the middle of it again. The DNC is not eager to have such a distraction before the caucuses and primaries begin in January. But members of the state party's Central Committee will vote in mid-November on whether to conduct the straw poll, and it looks as if they're inclined to go through with it.
"The party needs an infusion of adrenaline, and this will do it," said Susan MacManus, a political science professor at the University of South Florida in Tampa. "A lot of Democrats were in a funk when it seemed like March 9 was going to put us out of the picture. So they've got to have something like this."
The DNC organized a conference call among the nine campaigns to try to discourage participation. "All nine campaigns agreed not to participate," said one campaign official who was not on the call.
This is where it gets tricky. Candidates will have a tough time ignoring the straw poll because Florida's big Democratic donors will expect candidates not to shun them. And Florida's role in the 2000 presidential election make it into something akin to the Alamo for Democrats.
The Miami Herald reported on Monday that Dean is "quietly mobilizing for a show of force" for the straw poll.
Dean spokeswoman Tricia Enright said: "What we said [on the conference call] was that we'll abide by the rules, but we want to go to the [Florida] convention. We just want to go and take our message there, and we'd like to for this issue to just not be an issue."
Which sounds like a way of saying: Sorry DNC, we want to be friendly, but we're competing in the straw poll whether you like it or not.
Said Enright: "Since Florida felt it was denied its vote in 2000, why would we deny it again by allowing [the activists] to have their straw ballot?"
"It's all about the straw poll," said an official with the Edwards campaign. Edwards will be campaigning in South Florida on Friday (I will be in tow and will write about it next week).
A Gephardt spokesman said his candidate would abide by the rules.
"We're likely not to participate in the straw poll just because it's against the DNC rules," said Erik Smith. "The rules are pretty clear on it."
This week's decisions by Clark and Lieberman not to compete in Iowa also raise the significance of the Florida straw poll and primary, as Mark Silva of the Orlando Sentinel wrote earlier this week. While pulling out of the Jan. 19 Iowa caucus might have been a good strategic move in one sense, it also puts pressure on the candidates to win at least a couple of the other lower-profile early contests in February, after the Jan. 27 New Hampshire primary, which neither Clark nor Lieberman seem likely to win.
Dean's efforts to organize and compete in Florida underscore the state's importance. Winning the straw poll could give Dean some momentum going into Iowa and New Hampshire and undercut Clark's, Lieberman's and Edward's ability to claim a southern advantage.
No polls have been taken in Florida since June, long before favorite-son Graham exited the race. But Jim Kane, a keen observer of Florida politics who runs the independent Florida Voter Poll, said the state is truly competitive now.
"It's clear the Dean people are recruiting people. He is well organized…Lieberman will be strong in South Florida and Wes Clark will do all right. Overall, it's going to be tough for most of the candidates to compete with Dean. He's better organized and he's got more money, plus he's got the momentum."
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