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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: quote 007 who wrote (48283)	10/22/2003 12:32:46 PM
From: zonder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

I receive the Belkin Report. He is a great guy - intelligent, well-informed, and quite witty :-) Here's the opening sentences of this week's Belkin Report: The point of a bear market rally is to make everyone bullish again before the market does its next swan dive. That process has largely been accomplished. The fear and loathing of equities that the 2000-2002 bear market drilled into investors has been massaged into complacency by the subsequent 12-month rally. (...) Tech stocks have climbed back out of the gutter into investors' hearts again. Cyclical stocks are also highly esteemed by the rosy consensus crowd - you've got to own them to participate in that economic recovery that always lies just around the corner. The 12-month rally has erased pessimism and enhanced the feel-good factor - what, me, worry? etc etc... His recommendations: Favourite trades: Short the dollar (isn't it pathetic when a country trashes its own currency?). Overweight defensive groups for long exposure. Short stock indices. Long option volatility (puts). Short Dax.

To: quote 007 who wrote (48283)	10/22/2003 1:48:46 PM
From: Techplayer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57110

This otherwise positive viewpoint points to the same issue: fxstreet.com There is one development that is causing us some near-term concern about the strength of economic growth in the first half of 2004. And that is the recent sharp deceleration in M2 and M3 money supply growth, as shown in Chart 7. We believe this slowdown in money growth is the result of a slowdown in net new mortgage credit growth as a result of the recent backup in mortgage rates. We expect that increasing credit demand from the federal government and businesses (to finance higher inventories) will soon lead to resumption in rapid growth in the monetary aggregates. If this does not occur, however, the risk is that our first-half 2004 GDP forecast is too high.