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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (7683)	10/22/2003 8:25:59 PM
From: rhering	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

Bob, I have always been astonished at people being able to make money consistently banking on short term swings in the market. I've never been able to do it. In fact, most of the time the market goes the opposite way I think it will in any given day. I just cannot see placing any long term bets against semi equipment stocks doing anything but exceptionally well over the next 2-3 years and maybe longer. I see it as a good bet, particularly after the savage downturn the last two years. Part of my optimism is simply driven by the faith that even though I don't know what the next technical driver will be two years from now, I just know there will be one, and chances are it will involve semiconductors and likely lots of them. The other reason for my optimism, is the fact the only thing more worthless than an old semiconductor is the old semiconductor equipment used to make it. It's nice that Applied's P5000 is in the Smithsonian, but that is the only use for it now (BB might know of some P5000 still kicking out product in some Vermont wilderness but that is the exception that proves the rule). The tools have a useful life of 3-5 years and then need to be technologically replaced or significantly upgraded. I don't see this trend changing in the next 7-10 years. (After 40 nm I don't know what will happen). Given this I am mystified when a semi stock drops 6% after hours because a CFO cannot predict whether an order will be booked and/or accepted in December or January. Regards, Roger