JOHN FUND ON THE TRAIL
How Will He Govern?
Mr. Schwarzenegger goes to Sacramento.
Thursday, October 23, 2003 12:01 a.m. EDT
URL:http://www.opinionjournal.com/diary/?id=110004205
SACRAMENTO, Calif.--Arnold Schwarzenegger arrives here today to meet with top legislative leaders and Gov. Gray Davis, the man he replaces Nov. 17. Everyone is asking: What kind of governor will Mr. Schwarzenegger be?
Some of his admirers are hoping he'll completely dominate state government. But that's hardly likely given the gerrymandered majorities Democrats enjoy in the Legislature. The governor-elect's detractors, on the other hand, hope he'll end up being another Jesse Ventura, who gave up being Minnesota's governor after one term and was generally dismissed as an opportunist and showman. Not likely. Arnold is slicker, smarter and smoother than his co-star in "Predator."
Mr. Schwarzenegger himself is sending mixed signals. He told campaign rallies he would "kick some serious butt" if the "special interests" resisted change. On the other hand, he also promised a bipartisan approach to governing and often notes he is married to a famous Democrat, Maria Shriver.
Most observers agree that Mr. Schwarzenegger will have time to adjust once taking office. "He will have six months, a year, a honeymoon," says Oakland mayor Jerry Brown, a former governor. Says Ron Nehring, chairman of the San Diego Republican party, "He came through a campaign in which like an action hero he dodged every weapon and attack hurled at him. That engenders respect."
Bob Naylor, a former Assembly Republican leader, says, "The legislators will be scared of him for the first few months. He has a chance to use his mandate to break some gridlock." Jerry Brown agrees, telling Fox News that given Mr. Schwarzenegger's landslide victory, "people will defer . . . and at the end of the day, he'll work with the Democrats; he'll get some consensus. And if he does, he will be a powerful force."
Not that the job ahead is easy. The new governor must present a new budget to the legislature by Jan. 10, giving Donna Arduin, his budget adviser, barely enough time to prepare the audit of state finances that his campaign promised voters. The budget itself is in danger of being drowned in more red ink if court decisions declare unconstitutional $11 billion in borrowing that papered over much of the state's deficit last summer. Similarly, his effort to roll back the $4 billion increase in car registration taxes will be challenged in the courts.
But Mr. Schwarzenegger has plenty of advantages:
• The Schwarzenegger charm and media coverage. "Many of the legislators will be like putty in his hands," says a leading Democratic fund-raiser. "I've seen him seduce and influence liberal Hollywood for years, and he'll use all those skills in schmoozing with the Legislature."
One reason is the ability Gov. Schwarzenegger will have to train the media spotlight wherever he chooses. His transition team has just added 11 new workers just to handle all the calls from national and international reporters. Most important, the network affiliates from San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego are all planning on reopening the bureaus they shuttered during the 1980s. "After interesting governors like Ronald Reagan and Jerry Brown were no longer in office, they pulled out," says Reagan biographer Lou Cannon.
Jon Coupal, the head of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers' Association, says the return of television news to Sacramento will be of inestimable help to the new governor. "Liberals were able to pass all these job-killing bills because no one was around to pick up the legislative rock and tell people what was underneath it," he says. "That will change now that television will be here to report on whatever a Gov. Schwarzenegger chooses to emphasize."
• The Schwarzenegger image. For all his affability, Mr. Schwarzenegger's tough-guy persona lies just beneath the surface. "He can turn on the intimidation and keep you off balance as easily as he can turn on the charm," says Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, a longtime friend. Tom Hodson, executive director of the Center for California Studies, says the governor could use his celebrity status to go into the districts of balking legislators and use the crowds and fund-raising power he has to persuade them to join him.
Mr. Schwarzenegger has told friends that he plans to meet with many legislators on a one-to-one basis in search of cooperation. But if necessary, he will let it be known he is willing to go into their districts where his ability to attract crowds, chat up local leaders and raise money may prove highly persuasive. "This guy was born to play political hardball," a prominent California journalist told the Western Political Report. "He will use every available fund-raising and public relations tool he has to massage, shame, cajole, and browbeat if necessary legislators into going along. He has a mandate and he's willing to use it."
• Nervous Democrats. Some Democrats are clearly not in a mood to defer to the new governor. "If he thinks he's going to come in here and be Mr. Terminator, he will have his head handed to him," warns Senate president John Burton of San Francisco. "He doesn't have a mandate."
But most are taking a different tack. Several Democrats believe that their party's showing in the recall election--in which their party's candidate won only 32% of the vote to replace Gov. Davis--was, as Assembly Speaker Herb Wesson puts it, "quite a wake-up call." Mr. Watson's top deputy, Majority Leader Wilma Chan, warned fellow lawmakers last week in a confidential memo: "This is an extremely dangerous situation, one unparalleled in the history of this legislature, Without strong leadership we could conceivably lose our majority (in coming elections) and suffer greater setbacks for those we serve."
Others echo Ms. Chan's warning. Garry South, the strategist who steered Gray Davis to victory in 1998 and 2002, says that "Democrats need to wise up" and not drift too far to the left. "People can kid themselves and think this is all about Gray Davis," he told the San Jose Mercury News. "But you can't continually crowd the mainstream electorate with all this very liberal legislation without risking a backlash." The nervousness of so many Democrats is an opportunity that Gov. Schwarzenegger will no doubt take advantage of. Darry Sragow, the campaign strategist for Assembly Democrats, has already warned the Democratic caucus it should "put aside whatever differences it may have with the governor-elect and enter into good-faith negotiations."
• The mood of California. It's hard to exaggerate how pessimistic people here are about their state. A Field Poll last month found that 83% think the state is in bad economic shape, up from 56% last year. Far more people believe things will get worse (41%) than that they will get better (29%). "In that environment people have low expectations," Assemblyman John Campbell told me. "Even a little visible improvement could lift people's optimism."
And the economy is improving. The latest numbers from the state Department of Finance shows tax receipts exceeding projections. An internal department memo obtained by the Sacramento Bee says revenues overall for September were about $400 million higher than projected. I'm told that trend is continuing for the month of October. Mr. Schwarzenegger just might get lucky and take office as the economy finally picks up steam again.
• The initiative process. Mr. Schwarzenegger has already pledged that if the Legislature doesn't repeal its recent decision to grant driver's licenses to illegal immigrants he will help collect signatures for a popular referendum to overturn the law. The business community, which has been politically cowed by liberals in recent years, came to life in this recall campaign. Both the state Chamber of Commerce and the Manufacturers Association endorsed Mr. Schwarzenegger, their first endorsement for governor in decades. He may be able to use his star power to persuade business to bankroll other initiatives on worker's compensation reform and spending limits if the legislature balks at them. Everyone agrees his fund-raising potential is immense. He raised some $15 million for his campaign for governor in a scant two months, and his ability to raise money will only increase with the power of the governorship.
In 2002, Mr. Schwarzenegger put up the first $1 million to place his successful initiative promoting after-school programs on the ballot. Much of the rest he raised through creative fund-raising techniques. He told Cigar Aficionado magazine that he would call up high-dollar donors during a break in the filming of "Terminator 3" and say he would love to chat with them. "I'd tell them I had the makeup on, the costume on and all the props were around me," he said. "They would go crazy and say, 'Can I bring my kids down to see you?' I'd say sure, but it would cost them. I would tell some it would cost them a hundred . . . thousand."
George Butler, who introduced Mr. Schwarzenegger to the world in his 1977 film "Pumping Iron," says that "no one should ever underestimate Arnold, because he has always had a master plan that he meticulously follows." The bodybuilder first outlined it to Mr. Butler and others at an International House of Pancakes in Santa Monica during the filming of "Pumping Iron." Mr. Schwarzenegger told his friends that his plan came to him in a recurring dream and had a specific order: He would move to America; get an education; invest in real estate; become an actor, a director, a producer; buy houses; collect art; marry a glamorous and intelligent woman, and be invited to the White House. Then he wanted to win political office. Mr. Butler published this anecdote in a book on bodybuilding way back in 1991.
It's clear that Mr. Schwarzenegger has succeeded in every one of his goals. Now having been elected governor of the nation's largest state, he admits he is tackling something much larger than his own personal ambition. But that doesn't mean it would be wise for anyone to bet against him. |
