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Strategies & Market Trends : Trading with Jerry Olson(OJ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (1250)	10/26/2003 2:59:42 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1617

here's my newsletter from the 12th...sink or swim? =========================================================== JERRY OLSON'S "POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER DATED 12 OCT 2003 "IT'S THE CONSUMER STUPID" Hello out there everyone on this nice fall weekend here in the east. Hope you and yours are doing well, my regards to your families. There is increasing evidence that the consumer while they held up this entire recession standing alone, are not only still in the game, but in it to win it. All the retailers have shown marked improvement in their respective numbers. The CEO of Bloomingdale's was on TV the other day and said not only is he hiring right now, but over the last 2 1/2 years he has not seen buying like this over the past 2 months. This is very good news for the markets. While a correction could happen at any time right now, I doubt there will be much heavy selling like we've seen in the past. I'll discuss this at a later date. Suffice it to say we have the meat of the buying season ahead of us thru Xmas, and what with the Presidents tax rebate starting to take hold now I think the upside could be very strong here. The retail store numbers came out last week and they were astonishingly good. GAP up 13% BJ Wholesale up 12% even stodgy old SEARS was up 3.2% WALL MART up 5.6%. This is what I was saying last week as my wife and I were stunned to see how crowded the malls were. It was a real surprise to us. So what it means to me and you is the consumer keeps this rally going, and we'll continue to buy all pullbacks till this mentality changes. The shorts over the last 7 months have been severely punished as we continue to move higher and higher on all indexes. Every time they think this is it?, they get trapped in that mentality and bias and get smashed all over again. Every single pullback is bought harder than the last one. I can see it on the charts, as the moves are faster and with more oomph to them. When we had that last 120 point pullback on the COMPX to 1790, the next move up has been nothing short of spectacular here folks. We're up 130 points without a breather. I'd sure like to see one here, but what with the BIG DOGS reporting in earnest this week I doubt that's going to happen. I'm expecting stellar earnings reports from a host of corporations with forward guidance to be better than ever over the last 3 years. Meaning visibility is getting clearer out there. Maybe some IT spending will begin shortly into next year and really get this train cookin. Just remember this, if we ever hear INTC is raising their CAP X numbers at anytime get sooo long the SMH you can't stand it. I'd dearly love to position trade that index but I'm not so sure this is a good enough time frame to get heavily long. I'd like to see a correction this fall maybe after earnings season, and then buy that dip with a ton of sideline cash. You'll do the same as well. We'll use LEAP calls for leverage too. I might add here that I feel the Online Retailers like YHOO-AMZN & EBAY will all be over 100 next year easily. There is an ETF the HHH that can be traded like the SMH and BBH. It continues to breakout on each successive pullback. Great chart for those stocks. Now let's visit the RTH, this is the ETF for the Retail sector. The chart just did a bearish signal reversal which I deem as very bullish. it just broke out to a 52 week high at 92, we have not only a bearish signal reversal up here but it just completed a shakeout pattern too. So how do we trade this? It does not move fast, but it trades OPTIONS<G> hello! the Nov 90 calls RTH-KR cost $3.50 and there 2 points In The Money already. We have retail sales reporting this week folks on the 15th, think it's going to be good? eh? Let's take that trade on Monday of this week. Maybe just maybe we catch a nice pop in this index and our options. Btw the HHH also trades options as do most of the ETF's. we have EBAY on Thursday of this week and AMZN on the 21st. Might be a nice option play there too. Maybe the Nov 45 calls...I hope we get a short pullback Monday into Tues am to get these 2 trades off. Hang tough and watch these as we head into heavy earnings season this coming week. ================================================================================================ WELL EVERYONE LAST WEEK WE HAD MAJOR BREAKOUTS ON ALMOST ALL INDEXES PRETTY DRAMATIC IF YOU ASK ME. THIS IS TRADITIONALLY A SEASONAL TIME FRAME THATS VERY NEGATIVE, HOWEVER IT DOES NOT MEAN IT "HAS" TO BE THAT WAY EVERY YEAR. SO DO NOT GET BEARISH AND HEAVENS SAKE DO NOT GET OVERLY BULLISH EITHER. IF YOU TRADE OPTIONS USE THE 20% RULE HERE. IF YOU LOSE 20% SELL THE ENTIRE POSITION. ON THE UPSIDE I ALWAYS LOOK FOR 50-100% PROFITS ON MY ENTRIES. DJIA---COMPLETED A BULLISH CATAPULT PATTERN ON P&F CHART AS IT BROKE A 52 WEEK HIGH AT 9700. THE HORIZONTAL PRICE OBJECTIVE IS STILL AT 10,400. WE HAVE TO TAKE OUT THAT INVERTED HAMMER FROM LAST THURSDAY FIRST. THE TOP OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND HERE IS AT 10,000 THAT SHOULD BE A 1ST TARGET. 9400 IS THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN, A NORMAL REVERSAL JUST LIKE THAT LAST 9300 PB. THE 20 EMA ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART(DCC) IS AT 9525.00 THE 38.2% RETRENCHMENT IS AT 9467.00. WE TOUCHED THAT UPPER PROJECTION NUMBER AT THE 161.8% TARGET LAST THURS. COMPX---IT TOPPED OUT EXACTLY AT THAT 161.8% PROJECTION AROUND 1925. ON THE DCC CHART THERE'S 2 SUCCESSIVE SPINNING TOPS OR HANGING MEN THERE. THE 20 EMA IS AT 1866.00 IT'S ALSO THE 50% RETRENCHMENT FROM THE SEPT LOW TO THE OCT HIGHS. NOW IF THAT COMES INTO PLAY IT COULD BE A SOLID AREA TO "BUY" THAT DIP. 1900 THE 3 BOX DOWN AND A PRINT OF 1940 KEEPS US MOVING HIGHER STAYING IN X'S. BTW I COUNTED EACH COLUMN OF X'S AFTER EACH PULLBACK OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS. AT THIS JUNCTURE WE ARE OVERBOUGHT AND IN NEED OF A QUICK TRIP LOWER. WILL IT HAPPEN? WHO KNOWS. WE ARE RIGHT AT THAT CENTER TINE OF THE LARGE FORK. SOX---THIS INDEX ON THE LAST PULLBACK(PB) BROKE A SPREAD TRIPLE BOTTOM AT 420, THE BUYERS CAME IN WITH A VENGEANCE AND RAN IT ALL THE WAY BACK UP TO THE DOUBLE TOP AREA AT 465. ALL IT NEEDS IS A PRINT OF 475 TO BREAK A SPREAD TRIPLE TOP? AMAZING IF YOU ASK ME. FROM A TRIPLE BOTTOM BREAK TO A TRIPLE TOP BREAKOUT IN LESS THAN 3 WEEKS. NOW I'VE TALKED ABOUT "INVERTED HAMMERS" THEY TO ME ARE NOT BEARISH. GRAVESTONE DOJI'S WELL THATS ANOTHER THING BUT NOT THESE STICKS. IT SOMETIMES GETS THE BEARS INTO THINKING THEY'RE BEARISH BUT IT'S THE NEXT FEW STICKS THAT WILL TELL THE TALE. I HAVE THE SOX PROJECTING UP TO THE 61.8% AREA AT 486.85. THE 20 EMA(EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGE) IS 447, THE 3 BOX DOWN IS AT 450 WITH THE 50% RETRACE AT 443.00...BIG WEEK FOR THIS INDEX WHAT WITH ALL THE HEAVY HITTER SEMIS REPORTING. NDX---ON THE DEFAULT 25 POINT PER BOX CHART THIS INDEX BROKE OUT LAST WEEK AT 1425 THAT WAS MAJOR FOLKS. THE BULLISH PERCENT(BP) ON THIS INDEX IS AT 79 WITH 80 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP. IT'S MADE A SUPER RUN HERE OFF THAT RECENT PB TO 1310, WE'RE UP OVER 100 POINTS. THE 61.8% PROJECTION IS AT 14239.41 THE 100% AT 1507. THE 20 EMA DCC AT 1363 THE 50% RETRACE BACK DOWN IS AT 1360.00 WITH THE 3 BOX DOWN AT 1380. WE ARE UNDERNEATH THE CENTER TINE OF THE MAIN FORK HERE. SPX---ONLY NEEDS 1050 TO BREAKOUT(B/O) LARGE FOLKS. FRIDAY WAS A PREFECT HARAMI STICK, THEY USUALLY RESOLVE THEMSELVES IN THE DIRECTION OF THE CURRENT MOVE..THATS UP! THE 100% PROJ IS AT 1068.77 WITH THE 161.8% AT 1118.72 WOW THATS UP THERE HUH? THE CURRENT 20 EMA IS AT 1023 THE 38.2% IS AT 1025, AND THE 3 BOX DOWN IS AT 1010.00 ALL WOULD BE NORMAL PB'S. WE ARE ABOVE THAT CENTER TINE OF THE UP FORK. BKX---TOUCHED THE 100% PROJECTION AT 925 AND DOJI'D THERE LAST WEEK. WE HAVE TO TAKE IT OUT TO MOVE HIGHER. THE 20 EMA IS AT 900 THE 38.2% IS AT 907 THE 50% RETRENCHMENT IS AT 901 AND 910 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN. THE 161.8% IS AT 960.. BTK---LOOKING AT THE DCC CHART IT'S RIDING THE 20 EMA FOR 6 DAYS NOW. NEEDS TO POP AND GO HERE. 61.8% IS AT 488.75 AND THE 78.6% AT 502.24, 480 KEEPS IT MOVING UP..I LIKE THE "LOOK" OF THE CHART. 460 IS THE 3 BOX DOWN AND THE 50% RETRACE THERE AS WELL...IT'S UNDERNEATH THAT CENTER TINE OF THE UP FORK. OEX---ONLY NEEDS A PRINT OF 525 TO BREAKOUT AGAIN, AND A MAJOR ONE TOO I WOULD SAY. BIG DOJI THURSDAY WITH A HANGING MAN OR SPINNING TOP ON FRIDAY...THE 20 EMA IS AT 513, THE 50% RETRACE DOWN AT 499 3 BOX DOWN AT 505 WITH 495 A DB BREAK. 100% PROJECTION UP IS AT 535 THEN 161.8% AT 560. SPZ3---THE FUTURES..THE E-MINI S&P'S---WE HIT THE 78.6% NUMBER NEAR 1050ISH. THERE'S AN INVERTED HAMMER ON THE DCC CHART WITH A GOOD BAR ON FRIDAY. WE ARE ABOVE THAT CENTER TINE OF THE MAIN UP FORK HERE TOO. THE 100% PROJECTION IS AT 1067.86 AND THE 20 EMA IS AT 1023 WITH THE SEPT LOW TO THE OCT HIGHS AT 50% RETRACE BACK DOWN TO 1018...STILL ALL OK TO ME HERE. NQZ3---THE E-MINI NAZ FUTURES---BREAKS A TRIPLE TOP AT 1410 THAT WAS A NICE POWERFUL RUNUP HERE FOLKS. IT'S UNDERNEATH THE CENTER TINE OF THE UP FORK. I LIKE THE LOOK OF THE FRIDAY STICK HERE. THE 100% PROJECTION IS AT 1500 AND THE 20 EMA IS AT 1365, THE 3 BOX DOWN IS AT 1380. SO LET'S WAIT AND SEE WHAT THE TECH STOCKS DO THIS WEEK WITH EARNINGS COMING OUT IN EARNEST<VBG> VIX---A QUICK COMMENT HERE..IF THE VIX BREAKS 17.50 THAT WOULD A SERIOUS QUADRUPLE BOTTOM BREAKDOWN AND SEND IT TO HELL IN A HAND BASKET. AS I SAID A CRUCIAL WEEK FOR EARNINGS PLAYS AND THE DIRECTION THAT THESE INDEXES WILL TAKE. THE QUESTION IS THIS. IS THE EPS ALREADY PRICED INTO THIS THIS RALLY? IF YHOO IS ANY EXAMPLE THEY ARE NOT! STAY ALERT BE FOCUSED AND LET'S MAKE MONEY. IT'S BEEN NOTHING SHORT OF FANTASTIC FOR US TRADING THIS UPSIDE MOVE. KEEP UP THE GOOD HARD WORK. ================================================================================================ OK THE BIG GUNS ARE REPORTING THIS WEEK LET'S TRADE EM' LIKE WE KNOW HOW TOO. INTC---THIS BEHEMOTH REPORTS TUES AFTER HOURS(AH). THIS REPORT WILL BE GOOD THEY ALREADY PRE ANNOUNCED HIGHER NUMBERS. 30.90 THE BTL---29.90 THE SST. THERE'S A PENNANT PATTERN ON THE 15 MINUTE CHART, BUT A RISING WEDGE ON THE DAILY...THIS STOCK MUST BREAKOUT HERE. I OWN IT AT 29.05 NVLS---THIS ONE IS NOT PLAYING BALL HERE AHEAD OF EPS TUES AH. 37 IS THE BTL---35.95 THE SST..MUST GET OVER 38 TO KEEP IT MOVING. MOT---AFTER A NICE BREAKOUT OVER 13 IT'S CONSOLIDATING HERE AHEAD OF EPS TUES AH. I HAVE THE OCT 15 CALLS FOR A FUNNY MONEY TRADE AT TEN CENTS PER CONTRACT AND JUST BOUGHT 50. SHOULD BE FUN HUH? 14.10 THE BTL---13.50 THE SST. QLGC---EPS WEDS AFTER HOURS WE COULD GET A QUICK RUN UP HERE THE CHART IS LOOKING A BIT BETTER. THERE'S A DOJI 2 STICKS BACK ON THE DCC CHART THAT "MUST" BE TAKEN OUT. 51.15 THE BTL---49.95 THE SST. IBM---EPS WEDS AH WITH A VERY NICE LOOKING CUP HERE ON THE DCC CHART. I LIKE THIS STOCK HERE SHOULD BENEFIT FROM THE LOW DOLLAR. 93.25 THE BTL---91.90 THE SST. NICE PENNANT DCC CHART SEBL---BROKE 2 P&F PATTERNS LAST WEEK OR SO. A BULLISH TRIANGLE TO THE UPSIDE AND A SPREAD TRIPLE TOP TOO. IT'S NEAR R(RESISTANCE) AT THE BEARISH RESISTANCE LINE (BRL) AT 12.50..DOJI 2 STICKS BACK DCC. 12.60 THE BTL---11.75 THE SST EPS WEDS AH. SNDK---EPS WEDS AH WITH A BALLISTIC RUN FROM EARLY MAY AT 18 BUCKS TO THE PRESENT WHAT A BLAST. EVERY SINGLE PB HAS BEEN BOUGHT ON THE RISING 20 EMA DCC. 73.65 THE BTL---72.30 THE SST. BRCM---I OWN IT AT 28.25 IT'S WORTH 3 BUCKS RIGHT NOW IT HAS EPS THURS AH I'LL HOLD WITH A 2 BUCK STOP AT 30.25.--- 31.90 THE BTL---30.80 THE SST. LOVE THIS STOCK LONG THINK THEY'LL BEAT EPS HANDILY EBAY---EPS THURS AH..I OWN THE STOCK AT 58 AND THE NOV 60 CALLS<GULP>?...A DOJI THERE ON THE DCC CHART MUST BE TAKEN OUT FROM LAST THURS..THERE'S A NICE HAMMER BAR FRIDAY...COME ON EBAY. ON P&F THE CHART IS AWESOME. NEEDS TO BEAT BIG AND GUIDE HIGHER. 61.00 THE BTL---59.90 THE SST. AMD---JUST BROKE A TRIPLE TOP LAST WEEK AT 13.00 HAS EPS THURS AH. A PRETTY NICE CHART TOO ON P&F. CAN THEY EVER HAVE GOOD EPS?. 13.65 THE BTL---12.90 THE SST. CREE---THIS STOCK IS MOVING UP AND DOWN LIKE A YO YO HAS EPS AH THURS TOO. IT'S HAVING TROUBLE AT 22.50 TO 23 AREA. MAYBE EARNINGS WILL PROPEL IT UP AND OVER 24 THE B/O NUMBER. 21.30 THE BTL---20.30 THE SST. JCOM---WHAT A STOCK THE STREET LOVES THIS BABY. JUST REVERSED BACK DOWN 3 BOXES TO 44.00. HAMMERED ON FRIDAY EVERY PB HAS BEEN BOUGHT..IT HAS EPS ON THE 20TH. 45.80 THE BTL---44.60 THE SST SLAB---IT'S IN A SHAKEOUT PATTERN HERE AFTER BREAKING A DB AT 46, IT THEN REVERSED BACK UP AND IS IN X'S HOLDING HERE AT THE 20 EMA. HAS EARNINGS AH THE 20TH. 50.10 THE BTL---48.85 THE SST COULD RUN UP HERE. AMZN---IT'S BEEN ON A TEAR HERE BUT IT'S SHORT TERM OVERBOUGHT..HECK WHAT ISN'T..THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN IS AT 56 I'D BUY THAT AHEAD OF EPS IF IT HAPPENS ON THE 21ST. 58.60 THE BTL---57.40 THE SST BTW FWIW I TOOK 7 FAT DOLLARS OUT OF THIS BIG BOY..YHOOOOOO SKI<G> AMGN---2 SELL SIGNALS ON P&F RECENTLY HEADING TO MAJOR SUPPORT(S) AT THE BULLISH SUPPORT LINE(BSL) AT 62. THE CHART IS IN A CHANNEL HERE MOVING LOWER EACH SUCCESSIVE TIME. IT HAS EPS TUES THE 21ST SO MAYBE IT WILL BEGIN LATE NEXT WEEK TO START IT'S EARNINGS RUN.. I'D BUY THAT 62 NUMBER. 66.65 THE BTL---65.45 THE SST IMCL---I AM LONG AT 41.66 I BELIEVE THEY GOT FDA APPROVAL FOR ERBITUX WE'LL KNOW ON MONDAY..COULD BE NICE. 42.55 THE BTL---41.45 THE SST... KLAC---SHOWED STRENGTH LAST WEEK AS WE "TRIED" TO TRADE IT<G> I THINK IT'S GOING HIGHER AND BREAKOUT TOO. HAS EPS AH ON THE 22ND SO A SLEW OF EPS THAT WEEK TOO. 59.15 THE BTL---57.90 THE SST NTES---HAD A NICE 4 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN TO 68. AND IS TRYING TO GET BACK UP HERE WHAT A TRADER MOVES IN 4'S AND 5'S ALMOST EVERYDAY? 70.80 THE BTL---69.60 THE SST EPS ON THE 27TH. SOHU---BROKE OUT LAST WEEK AT 35 AND TRYING TO BASE HERE FOR THE RUN INTO EPS ON THE 27TH. 37.70 THE BTL---36.45 THE SST SMH---I AM LONG THE SMH HERE FOR A SECOND TIME AFTER TAKING 2 SWEET BUCKS OUT OF THE TRADE THIS PAST WEEK. 38.85 THE BTL---37.85 THE SST..THIS INDEX BREAKS OUT AGAIN AT 39 STAY LONG IT COULD HAPPEN FAST. =============================================================================================== WELL EVERYONE WE'LL SEE IF THERE'S ANY FOLLOW THRU THIS WEEK WHAT WITH ALL THE ECO REPORTS AND MONSTER EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS COMING UP..I CANNOT WAIT<G> IT'S GOOD TO BE ALIVE TRADING WITH FRIENDS.. THE PASSWORD FOR THIS WEEK IS...........................consumer...................lower case one word WARMEST REGARDS JERRY jerry olson www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com jerry.olson@verizon.net