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To: JRI who wrote (84866)10/25/2003 2:02:11 PM
From: reaper  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 209892
 
well, i waited to respond to you until i knew who was pitching Game 6.

with Beckett on the mound in Game 6, which is quite possibly even a dumber decision than leaving Pedro in in the 8th (if for no other reason than McKeon has had several days to mull the decision over, and have multiple looks at the overwhelming statistical evidence against going with a guy on 3-days rest in the post season), i'm gonna go with the Yankees in 7.

have i mentioned that pitching Beckett on short rest is stupid?? <ng>

my guess is that Beckett will pitch OK but not great, giving up 3-4 runs in 6 innings. but he won't be able to go deep, 'cause he'll be tired. which will force McKeon to get a lot of innings and pitches out of his bullpen. which is going to KILL them tomorrow, 'cause presumably if Beckett is going tonite that means Pavano is going tomorrow (if Redman goes tomorrow McKeon should be shot on sight, as he's tonite's "scheduled" starting pitcher; if they pitch Beckett on short rest and then go with the guy who was supposed to pitch tonite tomorrow, well, somebody's going to have to invent a new kind of logic to explain that move) and Pavano will be going on short rest as well which means you're likely to only get 5 innings out of him. i don't know how closely you've been watching the series, but the Florida bullpen is in general not too good, and the Cubs and Yankees have just killed Florida relief pitching.

so anyway my guess is the Yanks win 4, maybe 5 to 2 tonite, and then are down early tomorrow but come back against the Florida pen to win (in what would be an ironic twist for the ages, they'll win in the 9th off of Oogie, who of course closed for Red Sox last year).

so Yankees in 7.

btw, have i mentioned that starting Beckett tonite is quite possibly the dumbest thing i have ever seen a manager do?? <ng>

Cheers