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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: C_Johnson who wrote (7720)	10/24/2003 11:52:46 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Hi Carl, Thanks for the breakdown of fab projects in China.....do you know of any free source for getting updated fab information around the world? This was recently a question on siliconstrategies, and I believe there were several answers, but all of the sources charged buku bucks. I still would like to follow the industry, yet I am a bit poorer after these past three years:-) TIA Brian

To: C_Johnson who wrote (7720)	10/24/2003 12:08:48 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

Carl, thanks for the excellent posts...very thought provoking. It appears that significant technology hurdles along with high equipment, development, manufacturing costs, and technology standardization uncertainties are major issues that will hold back fabs from pushing or investing in the bleeding edge of new technology. I think the risk vs. reward question will keep the current and well understood production technologies in vogue for quite a while longer. It makes sense that so many new Chinese fabs will remain 150mm and 200mm. Chip technology is relatively new to them and they are still learning the manufacturing techniques. The equipment set is reasonably priced and readily available, the processes are well characterized, and the market that they will be addressing doesn't require the highest sophistication for the product mix. It seems that 6" and 8" fabs will be around for quite a while longer because it will be very economical to run and support those wafer sizes relative to investing in much higher priced technologies....they are getting more bang for the buck. BB

To: C_Johnson who wrote (7720)	10/24/2003 12:38:27 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 25522

RE: "A lot of used equipment is being absorbed here." Most of the fabs listed target the nodes from 250 nanometers to 130 nanometers. This is the realm of the 248 nanometer litho tool. Since this tool has been used down to 100 nanometers, I suspect that there are not too many used tools for sale. Will this ramp in China provide more new tool orders, albeit 248 nanometer, for the litho vendors than for the other semi tool makers? ASML reported that tool backlog went from 62 at the end of the June Q to 91 at the end of the September Q. I read that the backlog had jumped to 129 at the time of the earnings announcement in mid-October. I have not been able to retrieve the article or the post. Have you seen this number? Do you think 91 and 129 are related to the ramp in China?