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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio candidates - Moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (9)	10/24/2003 6:19:19 PM
From: nosmo_king	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2955

Do I have the pleasure of being the first to tell you... That's awfully gracious of you Michael, though I'm not sure to what you're referring. nosmo@caveatthe15minuterule.com

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (9)	10/25/2003 1:54:34 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 2955

Is the Bear Back? --MB, << Do I have the pleasure of being the first to tell you that we've been in a bull market for a year or so? >> Feels good, but lest we get overly cocky ... >> Market Prophet is Battening the Hatches Analyst Michael Belkin called the bubble, the crash and the rally. Now he's telling his clients to bail. Here are his long and short strategies for a December downturn. Jon D. Markman MSN MoneyCentral 10/23/2003 moneycentral.msn.com Rumors of the 2003 market rally's imminent death have been greatly exaggerated in recent months. But according to one analyst with an enviable track record, the end days are finally here, and it's time to prepare for a sickening plunge into December and beyond. The doomsayer is Michael Belkin, one of the few investment analysts who has emerged from the recent boom, bust and reboom with his reputation not just intact, but aglow. Most independent researchers build careers as all-bull or all-bear, but not this guy. Operating out of a home office on Bainbridge Island in the Puget Sound near Seattle, Belkin writes a $36,000-per-year weekly report on equities, bonds and commodities for leading managers of mutual funds, pension funds and hedge funds worldwide. The report rises above the straitjacket of specialization to treat the global landscape holistically as an interlocking economic, political and social system. Two weeks ago, Belkin abandoned his yearlong (and initially very lonely) bullish posture and put on the fur. He expects the broad market indices to sink significantly through the end of the year, led by cyclical industrial stocks, and does not see much of a recovery on the horizon for 2004. Belkin's Street Cred Why take him seriously? He's been right about the last few major swings. In mid-1999, he advised clients to buy into the Nasdaq bubble through the first quarter of 2000, noting that the Federal Reserve had printed so many billions of dollars to battle a nonexistent Y2K problem that money would spill into stocks and fuel a boom. On March 2, 2000, he turned around and advised clients to bail out of tech stocks and buy U.S. government bonds, contending big market indices could get cut in half. A month later, after the Nasdaq had plunged 1,000 points from its March 20 peak, he stunned clients who thought the worst damage had already been done by proclaiming the tech-heavy index would sink at least another 65%. In November 2002, with the Nasdaq having fallen about 70%, he turned full circle and advised clients to aggressively buy the most-volatile tech and gold stocks and sell low-volatility defensive stocks and bonds. In an interview last week, Belkin said everything that made him bullish last November now makes him bearish. His forecasting model, which consists of a nonlinear set of probability distributions, shows equity markets in every developed country around the world "wanting to turn down." At the same time, he sees emerging markets such as Brazil, Chile and China "turning up in parabolic fashion." The way Belkin sees it, we're "at the end of a liquidity bubble." .... <big snip> ... Naturally, one hopes that Belkin has it wrong this time. But you have to admit, he does have the hot hand. I’ll check in with him later in the year as we learn whether his guidance was right, wrong . . . or, perhaps, just early. << {Much] more at link noted above ... Best, - Eric -