Two states call who wins, who's winnowed
Democrats compete to break from pack
Sunday, October 26, 2003
BY JOHN FARMER
Star-Ledger Staff
DES MOINES, Iowa -- In the presidential nominating process, Iowa and New Hampshire go together like gin and vermouth. You can't fully appreciate the impact of one without the other.
On next year's presidential calendar, the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary occur a week apart in late January, with Iowa first, and each proclaims itself a special test of the candidates. But that's not the real role either plays.
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Together, they function as Phase One in the process -- a cocktail of differing cultures and constituencies, Iowa is more a test of organization, New Hampshire of raw popularity -- with the power to make, or more often break, any budding presidential candidacy.
Rarely do they vote alike. More often than not, New Hampshire's cranky Yankees spurn Iowa's favorite. But once the votes are tallied in the two states, both overwhelmingly white and unrepresentative of the country demographically, the Democratic field, currently nine strong, will be trimmed, if history is any guide.
Any candidate who does well in both states will head into Phase Two -- a February round of tests in Southern and Western states, led by South Carolina -- with hard-to-match momentum and a commanding claim on early fence-sitters and late campaign contributions. Traditionally, whoever ran in the back of the pack in Iowa and New Hampshire -- or failed to meet the media-driven "expectations" test -- went into the discard file.
But this time, two candidates -- Sen. Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut and retired Gen. Wesley Clark -- are bypassing Iowa and banking on New Hampshire to boost their chances in later primaries in more conservative Southern and Western states.
Rep. Richard Gephardt doesn't have that luxury. He's from neighboring Missouri, a frequent visitor and the regional favorite son. His biggest labor backer, James Hoffa, head of the Teamsters, has said Gephardt is history if he loses in Iowa.
The best bet for a double winner lies with two of the three New England candidates, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean or Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts. If either wins Iowa, he'll be strongly favored to capture New Hampshire as a regional favorite son. The third New Englander in the race, Lieberman, the 2000 Democratic vice presidential nominee, has abandoned Iowa and trails badly in New Hampshire polls.
Considered separately, the two states -- and their manner of choosing a nominee -- could not be more dissimilar.
In Iowa, no one will pull a lever or mark a ballot on caucus day. Instead, on the night of Jan. 19, Democrats and any independents who re-register that night as Democrats will gather in about 2,500 private homes and designated public places across the state to declare for one candidate or the other, lining up by candidate groups in different rooms or different corners of the same room.
It's a low-turnout format, requiring voters to commit several hours on a wintry evening debating with neighbors, sometimes for hours. It's the ultimate test of organizational skill.
Voters must be induced to attend the caucuses, educated on their workings and cajoled to stay through the often-lengthy deliberations. As few as 60,000 statewide could decide the Iowa winner, local politicians say.
New Hampshire does it the old-fashioned way -- a straight ballot box vote. Organization is important there, too, but personal popularity often is enough to carry the day, as Sen. John McCain of Arizona demonstrated in trouncing George W. Bush by 19 points in the 2000 GOP primary there. The turnout is usually large, as much as 600,000.
There are cultural differences, too. Iowa Democrats are a more blue-collar, labor-friendly bunch, with what Iowa's Democratic governor, Tom Vilsack, called a "small-town heritage." Its Democrats tend to be older and more liberal than their New Hampshire cousins and a bit more opposed to President Bush's Iraq policy.
The New Hampshire voter is likely to be more upscale, white-collar and more conservative, according to George Bruno, a Manchester, N.H., lawyer and a prime mover in drafting Clark into the race. Labor doesn't play nearly so strong a role in the Granite State. And while Iowans seem more favorably inclined toward government and public spending, New Hampshire is one of the most anti-tax states in the country.
Jobs are an issue in both states, but with a difference. In Iowa, it's the loss of union jobs at places like the John Deere plant in Ottumwa. In New Hampshire it's the disappearance of high-tech jobs generated by the 1990s boom.
A DEAN MACHINE
What the two states share currently is the same front-runner, Howard Dean. In Iowa, he holds only a slim and shrinking poll lead over Gephardt. In New Hampshire, he leads by 15 points over Kerry in last week's Concord Monitor poll, with Clark third.
Bruno, the Clark supporter in New Hampshire, provides the best explanation of Dean's success to date -- in Iowa as well as New Hampshire.
"He established himself as a presence, he took bold positions, he's the one who brought in new people, and he's made better use of technology, particularly, the Internet," Bruno said. "He's done a terrific job."
If Dean is beaten in New Hampshire, said Bruno, a former Newark lawyer, "it will be an upset."
Vilsack, the Iowa governor, cautioned against putting too much stock in polls here. Dean, he said, is strong in the state's cities, Des Moines and the Quad Cities along the Mississippi River, and on college campuses. But victory in caucuses, he said, historically has gone to the candidate with the best organization across the state. Currently, that's Gephardt, who enjoys the most Iowa labor backing -- but far from all of it.
"Dean has the passionate 25 percent," Vilsack said. His challenge will be to get beyond that, which is where organization figures strongly.
Vilsack, a popular two-term governor, has not endorsed a candidate. "But I might," he said. One of his former chiefs of state heads the Kerry campaign in the Hawkeye State.
Voters in both states are famous for insisting candidates court them, personally, if possible. Dean, free of governmental responsibility (unlike Kerry, Gephardt, Lieberman or Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina), leads in the press-the-flesh sweepstakes. Alone among the candidates, he has visited all 99 of Iowa's counties.
Among the other major candidates, Lieberman is widely written off by political observers in both states. Mark MacKenzie, president of the New Hampshire AFL-CIO, which is still neutral, said Lieberman has made relatively few appearances there, relying on his record and his résumé. "I don't think that sells in New Hampshire," he said.
Kerry, whose campaign was slowed by prostate cancer surgery, has moved up in polls in both states. His burden in New Hampshire, where he once enjoyed a comfortable lead in the polls, is "style," MacKenzie said.
"He's got to warm up," said MacKenzie, whose union of firefighters has endorsed Kerry. "Dean seems a more open guy. Kerry holds himself aloof."
Style is a factor in both states in a race where dramatic differences on the issues are hard to find. Each of the major Democratic candidates wants to roll back the Bush tax cuts -- Dean and Gephardt entirely, Kerry, Gephardt, Edwards and Clark just the windfall for the wealthy. And all favor some form of national health insurance.
DEFINING ISSUE
The Iraq war offers the sharpest contrast. Kerry and Edwards both voted against Bush's request for $87 billion to finance military and reconstruction costs in Iraq. Gephardt and Lieberman opted to back the president. But the war issue belongs primarily to Dean. He was the first and most vociferous Democratic opponent of the war and has said he opposes the $87 billion request.
Clark gets the nod as dark horse. With a late start and no organization, he elected to skip Iowa and rely on New Hampshire to jump-start his campaign before the contest moves south where, as a southerner and a general, he believes he'll be formidable. His New Hampshire effort will rely on a jerry-built organization of "Draft Clark" volunteers and holdovers from the defunct campaign of Sen. Bob Graham of Florida.
It might work. He ran third in the Concord Monitor's New Hampshire poll, well ahead of Lieberman, Gephardt and Edwards and close on Kerry's heels. "He's a good on the issues as the others," said Bruno, the New Hampshire lawyer, "and he's got a plus -- a military record that gives him credibility on national security."
There's one other quirky quality Iowa and New Hampshire share that gives pundits pause -- their capacity together to launch an outsider to the White House. Remember Jimmy Carter?
Copyright 2003 The Star-Ledger. Used by NJ.com with permission. |
