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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (103678)	10/26/2003 12:56:25 PM
From: dougSF30	Respond to of 275872

Pravin, I wouldn't worry. This is too soon after the AMD CC. If there were some big drop/reduce action, as you suggest might be possible, AMD would have known it by CC time, and would not have been as bullish as they were on Q4. IMHO. Doug

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (103678)	10/26/2003 2:07:36 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Re: With the exception of Emachines, no AMD systems are advertised in this Sunday's ad inserts.... ....If Intel has convinced HP to drop or significantly reduce AMD units, AMD could be majorly impacted this quarter. I think you've got it backwards. My earnings estimates for the past quarter were low, based largely upon observing the same drop in North American Retail (NAR) ads you've just mentioned. AMD sales to OEMs like HP and eMachines show up on shelves about 2 months after the sale is made (e.g. what we're now seeing at Best Buy, etc. reflects last quarter's sales). Either there were unexpectedly high mid-quarter sales of AMD systems at retail, leading to a near total sell through and end of quarter replenishment orders, or AMD sales in Europe and Asia have become so good that NAR sales are a growth opportunity above and beyond a substantially higher base of world sales. We know Athlon sales were terrific from the numbers just released. We also know that the terrific increase occurred without good NAR presence and without AMD64 volume availability. AMD clearly doesn't need great NAR availability to have an upside surprise quarter. If we start seeing better availability during the next couple of months, it would be an indication that this year's Q4 may be even better than recently improved expectations would indicate. Given how well AMD did last quarter with limited NAR presence, they don't require a lot of HP systems in Circuit City, etc. to beat those numbers this quarter.