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To: pezz who wrote (482)10/27/2003 1:56:23 AM
From: maceng2  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1417
 
But they ain't fudged!

How often are they revised upwards, and how often are they revised downwards? If it's a random 50:50 chance they are revised up or down then the figures are believable, though maybe are not necessarily accurate.

If, at the end of the month, the previous months figures are always revised upward, and the next month shows a decrease (to be later revised upward) then yes.. Houston we have a problem ... the figures are probably fudged.

It should be a fairly easy exercise to calculate the probability whether the figures are fudged or not. Its like the same probability of getting tails so many times in a row when flipping a coin for example.