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Technology Stocks : Atmel - the trend is about to change -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SemiBull who wrote (13199)	10/30/2003 2:26:52 PM
From: tech101	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13565

Utilization Rate 98 Percent at TSM !! Analyst's Couch: '04 CapEx forecasts for Intel, Samsung, ST, TSMC By Mark LaPedus Silicon Strategies 10/29/2003, 2:00 PM ET SAN JOSE -- The sudden upswing in the semiconductor industry has prompted investment banking firm Needham & Co. Inc. to raise its capital spending forecasts for both 2003 and 2004. Cristina Osmena, an analyst with Needham & Co. in New York, also raised her capital spending forecasts for Intel, Samsung, STMicroelectronics, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSMC) for 2004. "We are updating our bottoms up Capex model to reflect changes to budgets through Q3 reporting season and changes in our assumptions," Osmena said in a report issued this week. "We now expect 2003 capital spending to increase 4 percent to $29.3 billion, compared with our previous estimate of flat growth, or $28.5 billion," Osmena said. "We expect 2004 capital spending to grow 25 percent, or $36.7 billion vs. our prior estimate of 24 percent, or $35 billion," she said. Others had a different viewpoint. The improving economy and growth in chip sales are expected to boost wafer fab construction activity in 2004, according to a report from Strategic Marketing Associates (SMA) issued on Monday (October 27, 2003). George Burns, president of the Santa Cruz-based market research firm, sees growth in new fab activity and capital spending at restrained levels this year, but picking up strongly in 2004. SMA's capital spending survey indicates that chip makers will increase spending by 11 percent this year to $31 billion, up from $28 billion last year. But the forecast is for an increase of 23 percent in 2004 to almost $40 billion, according to SMA (see October 27 story). Meanwhile, on a company-by-company basis, there is good and bad news concerning Intel Corp. Needham's Osmena lowered her capital spending forecast for Intel by $100 million in 2003, but raised her 2004 assumption slightly to $3.9 billion, from $3.7 billion. "For Samsung, we raised our 2003 estimate for semiconductor capex to $3.7 billion from $3 billion (we had previously expected them to underspend) and raised our 2004 estimate to $4.4 billion from $3.6 billion," according to the report. "For ST Microelectronics, we have raised our 2003 estimate to $1.2 billion from $900 million and 2004 to $1.6 billion from $1.1 billion," the report said. "We are raising our 2004 TSMC capex assumption slightly to $2.25 billion from $2 billion." On the back of its third quarter financial results and capacity utilization rates that have gone to 98 percent, leading foundry chip supplier TSMC indicated it plans to spend nearly $500 million in the fourth quarter of 2003. This will bring its capital expenditure up to approaching $1.2 billion for the year after spending $706 million during the first three quarters of the year, TSMC showed in presentation materials (see October 28 story).