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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (7817)	10/28/2003 9:24:20 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

I don't know. I have the latest for TSMC at $1.25B so the $500M for Q4 seems on target. i.cmpnet.com That was for April so there has been time to revise but I have not heard of anyone revising upward...

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (7817)	10/28/2003 10:48:39 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

RE: "What am I missing here?" 1. $500M spent in Q4 is the result of orders placed before Q4. 2. $500M in new equipment placed into operation (they don't spend (pay) until acceptance) drives down utilization from 98% to 95%. 3. I don't think the 98% or 95% utilization in Q4 is as significant as customer demand in '04 in determining order levels, but it is a truism that 98% can't result in fewer orders than 95%. 4. Don't pay attention to the details of what analysts say; just mentally record "hot" or "not" and "thumbs up" or "thumbs down".

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (7817)	10/28/2003 11:28:20 PM
From: rhering	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25522

Brian, <<What am I missing here?>> Please see full context of the note below... The missing piece is the GS analyst is trying to cover a major miscall of the market. He's trying to imply that TSMC guiding down from 98% to 95% utilization justifies his prior caution. I guess he decided to ignore the $500M in capex because it didn't support his prior position. I said in an earlier post that this guy is either corrupt or stupid, this makes me think he is just stupid. On October 23 Goldman Sachs stated... <<This (KLA's Q3 report) report is likely to drive the pullback we have been calling for but we wouldn`t step into the stocks yet as TSMC utilization guidance and AMAT report loom as potential negative catalysts.>> full text of today's comment... <<GS US SEMI EQUIPMENT: WE`RE ALMOST OUT OF THE WOODS - TSMC CAPEX ST NEG/ LT POS Summary: TSMC guided down Q4 capacity utilization on its earnings call, which we noted as a possibility in our weekly. This should disappoint investors expecting higher Q4 utilization to force TSM to place large orders in Q4. TSM also stated that it will not ramp volume production for Fab 14 before the end of '04. This should obviate what we believe to be inaccurate competitor calls that TSM started placing meaningful Fab 14 orders. We believe Fab 14 orders are more likely in early '04 and those expecting TSM to drive upside to Q4 orders will be disappointed. On the positive side, TSM guided '04 capex up "significantly." Mgmt said that long-term capex/sales for the foundry industry is 25-30%. Applying this figure to the '04 sales est for TSMC implies capex of +$2b, within the range of our $2.5b est. Stocks likely to react positively to TSM's upbeat long-term comments but we remind investors that Q4 still looks choppy for semi equipment. We wouldn't be more short-term , aggressive on the stocks until expectations for AMAT's Nov. 12th report become more realistic. >