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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jerry manning who wrote (117977)	10/29/2003 9:55:43 AM
From: GST	Respond to of 281500

We inspired al Qaeda when we invaded Iraq. Every day we are there they feel more inspired. When a truly bad decision has been made, escalating commitment to that decision is unlikely to solve the problem -- see the history of Vietnam for details of how this works in practice.

To: jerry manning who wrote (117977)	10/29/2003 2:31:44 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 281500

Iraqi and American learning curves: The Iraqis have figured out how to aim and launch rockets, so we can't even guarantee safety in the hotel where the Sec. of Defense is staying. Now, they've figured out how to knock out Abrams tanks: thestar.com The problem with a "can't show any weakness" stance, is that it simply ignores reality. We don't have the forces to control the ground, and there are no more troops available. U.S. armed forces are totally committed, which leaves us vulnerable if anyone, anywhere else in the world, decides to challenge us. The Turks, Pakistanis, S. Koreans, etc., have all backed away from plans to send troops to Iraq. Bush isn't talking about re-starting the draft, probably because that'd be political suicide. What are we doing, as a response to the Iraqis rapidly learning how to wage guerrilla war against us? The response, so far, has been: 1. Ignore it. Pretend it isn't happening. When this became impossible, we next tried 2. to recruit other nations, to send soldiers to die instead of ours. This has been a total failure, since we are unwilling to share any real power. 3. re-hire Saddam's secret police to work for us, and (belatedly) re-hire (part of) Saddam's army to work for us. The guerrilla's response, has been a campaign to assassinate collaborators. "With us or against us" works both ways. 4. Pretend to share power. We got a UN resolution, and set up a "Governing" Council, to pretend to share power with the UN and Iraqis. But the pretense is so thin, it fools only the terminally gullible. 5. Threaten our enemies, without having the power to back up our threats when they call our bluff. Examples: 5A: we threaten (only threaten) to arrest Badr, on charges based on confessions obtained by Saddam's torturers (now working for Operation Iraqi Freedom). Badr is an Islamic cleric who is openly raising an army, setting up an alternative government, and creating a "no-go" zone for U.S. soldiers in the Shiite slums of Baghdad. 5B) we say we won't allow N. Korea to obtain nuclear weapons. They say they are, and even threaten to sell them. We do nothing. 5C) we do nothing, as Iran continues their nuclear weapons development program. 5D) we loudly proclaim we won't allow any government anywhere to provide a Safe Haven for terrorists. We loudly accuse Syria of doing exactly this, and maybe even of hiding all of Saddam's supposed WMD. Yet we do nothing, and can do nothing effective, to stop any of these activities. The motto seems to be: "Speak loudly, and carry a little stick." (The Big Stick we used to have, is now firmly stuck to Afghan and Iraqi Tar Babies.) 5E) do nothing, when Saudi Arabia (the real source of anti-American Islamic ideology/funding/recruiting) announces plans to buy nukes from Pakistan. Now that our army is out of Saudi Arabia, and fully engaged in Iraq, how much leverage do we have with the Saudis?