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To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (49640)	10/29/2003 1:06:15 PM
From: DanZ	Respond to of 53068

I picked the following story up from Reuters. If this is the reason that TOY was down 6% earlier today (now down 4.6%), it isn't warranted and the stock will continue to bounce. What does a single doll or even a few dolls have to do with total sales at a company the size as Toys-R-Us? Nothing, that's what. If Toys-R-Us dropped the product, it is either because it wasn't selling well, or had poor margins. Either way, I don't see how this could affect TOY negatively. The stock may also be down because of reports that the company had to close a few stores in CA due to the wild fires. Even that isn't justification for such a pounding on the stock today because it wouldn't be a recurring event, and I don't see how a few store closings could affect the company much anyway. Reuters Toymaker Zapf drops on 2003 sales, profit warning Wednesday October 29, 5:16 am ET FRANKFURT, Oct 29 (Reuters) - German toy maker Zapf Creation (XETRA:ZPFG.DE - News) slashed its full-year earnings and sales forecasts and said leading U.S. retailer Toys R Us (NYSE:TOY - News) had stopped selling its products, pushing its shares down by almost a fifth. The maker of the nappy-wetting "Baby Born" doll cut its growth forecasts for earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) and for currency-adjusted sales both to seven percent from a previous 15 percent, a company spokeswoman said. Zapf Creation said sales in the United States sank in the first nine months and that prospects for Christmas sales were gloomy. "Toys R Us was a great partner and they have lost them. There are many Anglo-Saxon and U.S. investors who bought this stock, and this bad news has made them sell," said Markus Baer, a retail analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt. "The U.S. was seen as a key growth driver as they are largely saturated in Europe and especially in Germany." The mid-cap stock fell as much as 19.6 percent in heavy volume. By 1015 GMT it was down 14 percent at 29.20 euros, making it the biggest faller in the German market. The German mid-cap index (^MDAX - News) was up 1.23 percent. Analysts said a 21 percent sales slide in the U.S. over the first nine months of the year fuelled fears about the firm's mid-term growth prospects. Zapf Creation said group sales over the nine months came in at 139.1 million euros ($162.2 million), around the previous year's level. EBIT increased by 10 percent to 20.5 million euros. Analysts say Zapf Creation has 63 percent of the German large dolls market compared with only four percent in the U.S. The firm, which has been making dolls for more than 70 years, over the past decade has sold more than 10 million of its baby Born dolls, which it dubs "the first doll with human functions".

To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (49640)	10/29/2003 1:17:53 PM
From: BWAC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53068

<no question that Amazon is a viable, profitable business with bright prospects,> <$15 price target on AMZN > Is it really that viable? And where are the profits? Target sounds right though. Seriously, the only thing distinguishing buying product from the AMZN wesbite vs. the Mainstream Brick and Mortar Retailor website is sales tax. And maybe free shipping. And maybe AMZN prices are lower since there is no financial stock punishment for continually selling product at a loss. Take the AMZN tool section. HD has a online sales website. LOW has one. Harbor Freight has one. Norhtern Tool has one. (Now apply that over each AMZN product segment.) Everything AMZN does has a Brick and Mortar competitor that can design its own website for online sales. IF these companies were smart they could run the thing out of the local stores at little incremental expense. When the sales tax issue gets equalized, what customer draw does AMZN have? The only possible bright future thing I can see is if AMZN branches out more into managing online purchasing websites for the Brick and Mortars. Otherwise as internet shopping matures, I don't even see AMZN as viable.