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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: davidk555 who wrote (19695)	10/29/2003 6:42:54 PM
From: Tim Bagwell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

David, thanks for the correction. Of course, the TAA was 60/40 in Jan. 2000. I tend to discount the later change to 65/35 since, IMHO, it was a meaningless move that few people are likely to have bothered with. Certainly, the smart ones had already exited equities by then. I'm growing tired of treating Brinker like he's given us all some great wisdom that we should analyze with tireless effort. He's a radio talk show hack. At best he's a rank amateur market timer and at worst he's deceitful. His model based timing is worth watching but I would be careful gambling on it's future. Beyond the model Brinker has become just another boring talking head and most people will do better to seek out professional advice.

To: davidk555 who wrote (19695)	10/30/2003 10:48:05 AM
From: Jeffrey D	Respond to of 42834

David:'if you followed ALL of his market timing advice (i.e. including the QQQ), I don't think you would be doing any better than someone who regularly contributes all of his 401(k) money into a retirement account into equities on a regular basis." << Let's have a show of hands. How many of you have the option of putting your money in the QQQs in your 401K accounts? Nobody raised their hands? Thank you for your attention. Jeff

To: davidk555 who wrote (19695)	10/30/2003 10:52:59 AM
From: stockalot	Respond to of 42834

" I would also like to point out that as far as my calculations go, if you followed ALL of his market timing advice (i.e. including the QQQ), I don't think you would be doing any better than someone who regularly contributes all of his 401(k) money into a retirement account into equities on a regular basis. - David " A great post as is usually the case for you David. I think that paragraph gets to the heart of reason you don't see any of those old believers over on the "moderated" thread pitching for Bob any longer. Jeffrey is left here to distort and "Pretend" that Brinker went totally to cash in 2000 and totally back in the market in March 2003. Anyone watching what really occurred should be aware that there is no logic that can make the case that what Brinker did was when viewed in it's totality was shrewd for the investor. Now without much difficulty one can see much of the duplicity involved as the desire by a newsletter purveyor to be "right" regardless what happens. His conflicting calls are not easily explained otherwise. As you noted nothing he did matched the rhetoric that he preached prior to the event. After claiming if his model ever turned negative he would go to 100% cash--he did nothing of the kind. After claiming the Nasdaq was a "casino" and that anyone who tries to time the Nasdaq should not be listening to him (how prophetic) he made huge bets on the Nasdaq and lost. TEFQX was touted up to a high of 18 bucks as a buy. Brinker moved it to a "hold" in 2001 and then has "hid" the advice ever since. After one such failed QQQ trade in the summer of 2000 when Brinker sold at the low of the summer he said "The most important thing in a bear market is capital preservation" When the ACT IMMEDIATELY QQQ trade with up to 1/3 of a portfolio began to decline Brinker kept saying that it was only delayed and he extended the time but encouraged followers that it was just around the corner. As the QQQs continued to slide, he dishonestly made a second prediction with the "up to 50% or more from the benchmark low of 52 on Jan 3, 2001" silliness. He at no time mentioned the tenet he used for the summer sale at the low of the summer. "Capital preservation in a bear market is most important" Instead he rode those 80 $ QQQs all the way down under 20 bucks first claiming "we don't sell on weakness" and finally hiding the call in the newsletter much like TEFQX. Look as you might, you will never find a mention of those QQQs Brinker claimed should not be held in the portfolios these days in the newsletter. His advice would be hard to justify if you had him on say PBS with Kangas these days. :)