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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: EL KABONG!!! who wrote (40424)	10/29/2003 3:34:42 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Lots of ACTION in metals - Look at the number of postings in SI's " Precious and Base Metal Investing" and "Natural Resource Stocks" Lots of good news on drilling resutls & prospects being released from companies in Vancouver... Not sure how long party will last. On Echo Bubble - ASKJ Ask Jeeves is 700 times earnings ...

To: EL KABONG!!! who wrote (40424)	10/29/2003 10:18:33 PM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

>>...as the US$ decreases in value, in order to maintain semblance of order in the markets, the prices of stocks as expressed in US$s must increase...<< How come? Here's one practical answer - flight out of IOUs into the substance. RegZ dj

To: EL KABONG!!! who wrote (40424)	10/29/2003 10:52:08 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello KJC, <<some stocks currently are in an overbought situation, or overvalued. But, there are also some stocks that are undervalued>> ... Buffett, Templeton, Jim Rogers, Bill Gross, ... and I cannot find them :0) Chugs, Jay

To: EL KABONG!!! who wrote (40424)	10/30/2003 2:49:11 AM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Kerry, Suppose you are the despotic head of a country, let's call it Freedonia, so named despite the absence of freedom. You are accustomed to sending your armed assistants around to tax, i.e. steal from, the ordinary people. You find that there are difficulties: the people hide what they have,the armed intermediaries keep a lot for themselves. However your two viziers, Jay and AC Flyer, come up with a joint plan, which is to print more money each year and simply buy (probably imported) stuff with it. Very simple. You implement it. Problem solved. Then you find that the price of gold, expressed in Freebucks, has a nasty habit of rising rather steadily. Ditto for almost anything you want to buy. So if you want to IMPROVE your already splendid standard of living you have to print MORE money. Then the price of gold increases still more rapidly. The mysterious market place seems to know more or less exactly how many Freebucks you are printing. I think the US is in a similar position. It's not that lots of money is being "printed". It's that the national debt is increasing at enormous speed and the wise guys who treasure their money expect that the only way this kind of debt can be repaid is to print money, hence they sell the US dollar IN ADVANCE. They don't do the same with the Euro or the Canadian dollar because they don't see the same need to print money to pay back increasing debts in Europe or Canada. When the large scale money printing occurs, those US companies with large cash balances will be penalized hence there is reduced incentive by the non-US foreigners to buy shares in such companies. If a stock like NEM is regarded as equivalent to gold then it too will increase in nominal price like gold does. So generally hard assets will be nominally "worth" more. But most companies are organizations of people, without easily tradeable hard assets, who will be disrupted by the future inflation so there is no reason for their stock prices to rise as fast as gold. Anyway that's my reaction to your post. I think your thesis is correct for commodity companies, mainly. A moderate inflation of 5-15% per annum has generally been bad for the prices of most stocks. They have not kept up with the CPI during such periods. Admittedly the huge printing of money has yet to occur; the drastic inflation has not arrived. But given the reluctance not only by the average voter but also by the powerful to pay higher income taxes, severe inflation in the US is IMHO a good bet. The huge deficits are real. Best wishes for your personal portfolio.