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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (54513)	10/29/2003 5:41:37 PM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

If you take 2000 people and ask them to identify a stock that will perform better than the S&P, then 1000 of them will succeed (on average) Given that the vast majority of mutual funds don't perform as well as the S&P, I doubt the success rate would be nearly that high.

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (54513)	10/29/2003 5:53:49 PM
From: Bridge Player	Respond to of 54805

<<If you take 2000 people and ask them to identify a stock that will perform better than the S&P.......>> etc. I recently saw this approach used to describe how to make money in the investment newsletter business. Obtain a mailing list of 2000 people. To half, send a forecast that the market will go up over the next 3 months. To the other half, send a forecast that it will go down. Take whichever half received your correct prediction, divide again into two 500-name lists, and repeat. After the 4th iteration, you will have a list of 125 folks to whom you have proven your market abilities and prescience with a perfect 4 for 4. These folks may be willing to pay handsomely to subscribe to your service. After all, they KNOW you are good.

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (54513)	10/30/2003 5:03:57 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

You make a few extremely good points. Isn't hindsight marvelous? Though I had self-banned myself from posting here for a variety of reasons, including the fact that I don't believe in investment systems or formulas, I may post here on occassion now that the main thread has gone private. The only "system" I have used is a fairly unsophisticated one. I bought a subscription to 10K Wizard so I could follow the activities of a very good value investor who manages a private fund. His record is exemplary. I have the ability to determine whether he is adding to his positions, selling, or taking up new ones. I daresay his research abilities and connections are better than mine.