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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (40445)	10/29/2003 7:45:35 PM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

From time to time I feel uneasy enough with my positions and get the urge to take profits. This is one of those times. NG may do all right, or it may not depending on how the winter goes, so I didn't feel safe owning so much of it. ERF is pretty overvalued, IMO, compared to other trusts, primarily because it is the blue chip of the industry and everybody seems to want a piece of it. The long term picture of North American NG may not be very rosy. It seems everybody and his brother is announcing LNG projects. Reminds me of the electric power industry a few years ago -- with much longer lead time though. I have Treasury TIPS and i-bonds as part of the bond portfolio. I have no idea what the economy will do. I am thinking stagflation, with not much conviction. There are all these incredible fiscal and monetary measures trying to counteract the deflating bubble. It's a tossup. But stocks are clearly overvalued. Junk bonds probably fair valued. Treasury inflation-protected bonds a bit overvalued -- can't get much overvaluation there because of the inflation protection, so they are safe to own.