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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rick Faurot who wrote (30762)	10/29/2003 10:39:52 PM
From: T L Comiskey	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Saddam’s New War More and more evidence suggests that the terror attacks in Iraq were planned well before the war even began NEWSWEEK WEB EXCLUSIVE Oct. 29 — There is growing evidence that the devastating series of terrorist attacks bedeviling U.S. troops in Iraq may have been planned by Saddam Hussein and his lieutenants as part of a well-coordinated guerilla war strategy that was hatched well before the U.S. invasion of Iraq last March, U.S. intelligence sources tell Newsweek. THE OFFICIAL BUSH administration position is that the attacks on coalition forces inside Iraq are the work of isolated gangs of Saddam loyalists and Baathist die-hards who, in some instances, have teamed up with an assortment of “foreign fighters,” Islamic radicals and even common criminals for individual strikes on U.S. troops. But an alternative view is gaining acceptance within the U.S. intelligence community about the origins of the campaign. Scraps of evidence-most not publicly acknowledged by the administration—suggest that Saddam and some of his top Baath Party lieutenants began detailed logistical planning and purchasing for possible guerilla fighting in the months before the war, officials say. The most intriguing clues to support this view, officials say, are reports that dozens-and possibly even hundreds-of “suicide vests” rigged with explosives and detonators were discovered in caches by U.S. forces sweeping through Iraq as Saddam’s military and security apparatus crumbled and then melted away. According to defense intelligence sources, evidence has also been collected indicating that in the weeks before the war, Saddam’s agents made what appear to be concerted efforts to buy materials used to make improvised bombs-detonators, timers, wiring supplies-from neighbors and countries around the Persian Gulf. The belief among officials who are focusing attention on this intelligence is that cells of Saddam loyalists, possibly responding to plans made before the war, first tried out a few improvised, small-scale guerilla attacks on U.S. troops in the weeks after the overthrow of the regime. When they found that these were effective, and not that difficult to carry out successfully, the terrorists’ ambitions grew. Later those latent networks of Baathist guerillas started to team up with Iraqi jihadis and so-called “foreign fighters” who began to flock to Iraq from neighboring Arab countries. Even some U.S. officials who reject the analysis that the current guerilla campaign was well planned before the war acknowledged last week that there may be some central direction to it. U.S. officials note that while U.S. forces have killed Saddam’s sons Uday and Qusay and captured many of his sidekicks, at least one key lieutenant, Izzat Ibrahim al-Duri, second-in-command of the Baath Party’s ruling revolutionary council under Saddam, is still “at large.” U.S. officials say that while they believe Saddam himself is probably hiding virtually “incommunicado” for his own safety, Izzat Ibrahim may be playing a key role in supporting or even directing some of the recent terror attacks. The minority view inside the intel world that the campaign against U.S. troops may have been planned much earlier than was previously thought has gained greater acceptance in recent days as a result of the latest round of seemingly coordinated attacks in Baghdad, including four bombings on Monday (and a fifth foiled attempt) and the rocket attack last weekend on the Al Rashid hotel where Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz was staying. Officials familiar with intelligence reports say that the fact that the attack on Wolfowitz’ hotel was carried out by a relatively high-tech (for terrorists) homemade multiple rocket launcher also supports this view. The rocket attack also suggests that the anti-U.S. cells in Baghdad may be getting sophisticated assistance from outside the country, including hard-line factions within the Iranian intelligence service and even Colombian guerilla groups. One source says U. S . intelligence has seized compact discs containing instructions on how to build terrorist devices, including the kinds of multiple rocket launchers used in the attack on the Al Rashid hotel, officials say. The terrorist infrastructure inside Iraq may be even more complex than pessimists inside the U.S. government fear. According to Mullah Krekar, the now-exiled leader of Ansar al-Islam, a Kurdish Jihadi group that some U.S. officials have recently blamed for the wave of anti-U.S. attacks in Iraq, and at least four Islamic groups linked by ideology or personnel to the international jihadi movement that includes Al-Qaeda are operating in Iraq, along with at least two Saddam-ite groups and cells from Ansar al-Islam itself. Krekar, now fighting deportation from Norway (where his family took refuge years ago), insists that he only gets his information second-hand and has not been in direct contact with anybody in Iraq since he relinquished Ansar’s leadership in May 2002. But U.S. officials suspect that Krekar still has a hand in events in Iraq. In a recent interview with NEWSWEEK, he seemed well-informed about events inside Iraq, including activities of the various resistance groups. He said some of the Jihadi groups in Iraq even put out their messages on an Islamic Web site. Even pessimists inside the U.S. government who fear that the guerilla campaign against U.S. troops in Iraq was pre-planned and is likely to intensify, say a short “window” of time is still open for the Bush Administration to concentrate greater efforts on mounting a proper counterinsurgency campaign. One step would be to improve physical security and intelligence coordination. But the window will not be open indefinitely, and pessimists fear that even if the Administration does pay more attention to counterinsurgency, not enough properly-trained and equipped troops are available in Iraq to carry out an effective effort to shut the terrorists down for good. “We have to nip this in the bud before it gets out of control,” one official said. Some officials also complain that intelligence resources that could have been directed to tracking down potential terrorist attackers instead have been devoted to the Bush administration’s continuing intense hunt for Saddam and for what the administration insisted before the war were his stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons. One U.S. official involved in counter-terror planning complained that the hunt for Saddam and his WMD caches were “last year’s war” but that top Pentagon planners are still slow to realize it and move counterinsurgency preparations higher on their agendas. At his press conference this week, President Bush said the U.S. is planning to recruit more Iraqis to collect intel on possible threats to U.S. forces. The Pentagon, CIA and other policy makers also are reportedly debating whether to shift some intelligence officers to anti-terrorist duties from their current assignments hunting Saddam’s WMD.