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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio candidates - Moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Mullens who wrote (179)	10/30/2003 12:21:12 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2955

Jim, Qualcom is at 53 times trailing 12 and even those numbers are mostly pixie dust. They aren't hard numbers in any way. Growth on future numbers is a mug's game. Those numbers often don't happen. I am showing $1.39 on my earnings forward SWAG from First Call, but that's from now, not from Jan 2004. I like the co. It has more potential that Rambus did at this point in its development. But 53 times seems high for any stock. The way I would value this stock is to factor in reasonable growth vs. the risk and decide if I am more correct about the firm's outlook than the Chairman of the co., who is selling stock right now at these prices. So, I like the co., but well remember all of the panic selling that has taken place in the past and am willing to give up some potential upside for a better re-entry point. Here, I would only play it with long calls, keeping most of my powder dry. Do I know other cos. with similar growth potential? Sure. They also have very high risks and most of them are also wildly overpriced. Qualcom is far from being the worst offender in that regard. At least it has a great business.