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Strategies & Market Trends : Trading with Jerry Olson(OJ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (1256)	11/2/2003 12:42:17 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1617

my newsletter from the 19th..major week here folks upcoming ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ JERRY OLSON'S "POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER DATED 19TH OCT 2003 STREET IS SELLING THE NEWS Hi all my trading buddies hope all is well with you and yours this fabulous fall weekend in the east. It's autumn you know, and time to get out there walking and jogging(yeah right) our little hearts away feeling like a million bucks. As I like to say "it's good to be alive". Well the street is selling the news here on most of the high priced high valuation stocks. We are priced to perfection and if you do no guide up a lot higher than they wanted you're going to get sold. I can say that earnings have been stellar. Really looking a lot better here and hopefully it will continue onward and upward right thru the end of the year into early next year. Remember we are in a seasonal time frame thats quite negative for stock buyers here. Do not chase anything period. Wait for solid hard pullbacks to support to buy solid major big cap stocks. I have not seen any meaningful deterioration in ANY of the Point & Figure Charts yet. But you could easily see buying climaxes in many indexes and stocks as they all hit 52 week highs and sold off quite heavily into the end of the op ex Friday. Not at all unusual either everyone, more or less a typical op ex week in the scheme of things. Stocks got hammered after earnings and brokerages houses cut them to sells or holds etc. The current environment for forward looking guidance is looking fine to me. However it may not mean anything right here as profit takers are out in droves right now. What will be critical to my thinking going forward is "where" buyers will step back up to the plate on heavy volume. What price are they willing to pay for a stock as we correct a bit more here. I think it's logical for all of us to be on alert right now for any meaningful breakdowns in the indexes or stock charts. Pullbacks are one thing, complete breakdowns are another matter. The Funds are very upbeat right here along with solid economic news to keep this going a bit father as well. No telling when this will have a major downturn. But we did see these buying climaxes in the indexes last week..The BTK looked especially weak to me. You'll notice quickly those "Gravestone Doji's" on the SPX and OEX. My first thoughts are pullbacks to the 20 ema's on all indexs and maybe down to the 50 ema. I would suggest buyers will step up to the plate there. The question will be if sellers take control and hit them hard as they try to take the ball again. This is a picture perfect rally folks. But it's war out there at each and every turn. I feel the easy money has been made on the long side, and any real upside will be capped at this point. Again I have not seen anything to make me want to swing short here, although I made a good trade shorting AMGN last week as it hit my perfect downside target of 63 on the nose. But overall I am still dip buying till I see a meaningful change of "sentiment" first, and "trend reversals" second. Do not fall prey to those guru's looking for major declines here. You'll get murdered all over again. Many new people here were short all the way up from the March lows. If you haven't learned by now then I cannot help you. If you become too far to one side or the other then your doomed. The "Trend is your best friend" always. You try to fight it you lose. You cannot make the markets do what you wish. For that matter what you THINK should happen. We have no clue really as to the why's or wherefores of the markets underlying meaning. All we do is become solid trend following daytraders. Does not matter to me which way we go either. People traders have seen me as an aggressive short SIDE SELLER. I'll be exactly that when appropriate and not till then. Why you ask? Because the street is still long in there minds right now. They are ignoring the seasonality here. While they will discount this earnings season as per usual, and by the way that should brings us back toward the middle here. Or should I say normal places on all index and stock charts. To my way of thinking that would be a proper correction of the excessive run up we've witnessed and nothing more fundamentally. The buyers will lay in wait and dive in at some point like never before. You think March was big? I say watch out after this late fall early Dec pullback. Anyway stay the course try not to be too lopsided in your overall thinking and prepare each day as being neutral. Daytrading is so fabulous as long as you do not fight it. Go with the flow ok? =============================================================================================== OK LET'S CHECK ALL THE INDEXES AND BULLISH PERCENTS(BP) ON P&F. I STILL FEEL WE ARE PULLING BACK FOR 2-3 MORE DAYS. WE'LL ALL SEE THE BUYERS APPEAR THIS WEEK AS THE MARKET FINDS SOME SUPPORT AT SOME LEVEL. WHERE WILL IT BE? WELL I'M GOING TO TELL YOU<VBG> DJIA---TOPPED OUT AT 9800+ LOOKS LIKE IT WANTS THE 20 EMA DAILY CANDLE CHART(DCC) AT 9625. 9500 IS THE "NORMAL" 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN. NOW LISTEN UP HERE. ON THE LAST 2 PULLBACKS WE ONLY MADE 3 BOX REVERSALS EACH TIME. MAKING A HIGHER "LOW" AND THEN BREAKING OUT. WILL IT HAPPEN THIS TIME? TO ME THATS THE KEY. IF WE CANNOT TAKE OUT THE RECENT TOP WHEN AND "IF" IT GETS TESTED AGAIN I WOULD THINK THATS IT FOR THIS YEAR. 9200 WOULD BE THE START OF THAT BREAKDOWN AREA. THERE IS MAJOR LEAGUE SUPPORT AT THE BSL 8600 AND THE BOTTOM OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND AT 8800. WE SHALL SEE..NOW IF WE HIT 9500 OR SO AND REVERSE BACK UP AND TAKE OUT 9800 THEN MY PROJECTION WILL BE 10,000 AT 61.8% AND 100% AT 10250.00. COULD HAPPEN. COMPX---TOPPED OUT AT 1960 AN A AMAZING MOVE UP OFF THE SEPT LOWS. 160 POINTS STRAIGHT UP. THINK IT NEEDS A BREATHER HERE? IT'S ALREADY REVERSED BACK DOWN 4 BOXES. TO 1920. THE 20 EMA IS AT 1900 THE 38.2% RETRACE BACK DOWN FROM THE AUGUST LOWS TO THE OCT TOP IS AT 1850.00. NOW AGAIN I REMIND YOU ALL THE LAST 2 PULLBACKS, AND I CALL THEM PB'S BECAUSE WE TOOK OUT OLD HIGHS ALMOST IMMEDIATELY. WERE 120 POINTS DOWN. THAT 1840 FOLKS. LET'S SEE THE REAL STRENGTH OF THIS MARKET AND WHERE IT STOPS KEEP ALERT FOR ANY HEAVY VOLUME DAY ON A REVERSAL BACK UP. THE 38.2% RETRACE DOWN FROM THE AUG LOWS TO THE OCT HIGHS IS AT 1844.50...WILL WE GET THERE "THIS" TIME? SOX---ANOTHER OVERBOUGHT INDEX FOR SURE, BUT WHAT A RUN UP HUH? CAN YOU SEE THE WAY THIS MARKET WORKS AHEAD OF EARNINGS EACH QUARTER? AFTER EARNINGS THE STREET "HAS" TO ADJUST THE NUMBERS FOR "NEXT" QUARTER SO STOCKS USUALLY RETREAT A BIT, THEN THEY START THE "HOPE SPRINGS ETERNAL" RUN BACK UP AHEAD OF EPS ALL OVER AGAIN. IT'S NOT THAT TOUGH FOLKS. JUST REVERSED BACK DOWN 4 BOXES. THE 20 EMA DCC IS AT 457 AND THE 38.1% IS AT 445 RIGHT AT THE MIDDLE OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND. THE 61.8% PROJECTION BACK UP HERE 496.79. THE BP SEMIS IS AT 82.81%--- 78% WOULD ALERT ME AND YOU TO SHORT THEM HARD. NDX---SUPER DUPER MOVE UP OFF THE SEPT LOWS. UP 120 POINTS. IT SOLD OFF 2 TIMES BEFORE BETWEEN 80-90 POINTS AND THEN BROKEOUT TO NEW 52 WEEKS HIGHS EACH TIME. THE 20 EMA IS AT 1380, THE 38.2% RETRACE IS AT 1350..ANY BREAK OF 1440 AND WE'RE BACK OFF TO THE RACES AGAIN. TARGET IS 61.8% AT 1475.00. THE BP NDX IS AT 79% AND HOLD OK HERE IF IT BREAKS 72% I WANT YOU TO SHORT THIS INDEX USING OEX PUTS OR NQ'S FUTURES. I'LL SET THE ALERT... BTK---VERY WEAK AS IT'S MOVING SWIFTLY LOWER..MIGHT TEST THE SEPT HAMMER LOWS HERE THIS WEEK..WATCH IT TO BOUNCE THERE..BUT THE BIO'S DO NOT LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD. "HERE'S" A HEADSUP PLAY. IF THE BBH BREAKS 124 I WANT YOU TO BUY NOV/DEC 125 PUTS ON IT AND HOLD THEM FOR A SOLID 100% PROFIT PLAY. GOT THAT? ON THE BTK A BREAK OF 435 IS NEGATIVE. WE MIGHT GO TO THE JULY LOWS AT 415. BKX---ON A HIGH POLE HERE FOLKS BUT HANGING ON AS TOUGH AS NAILS. STRAIGHT UP FROM 880 TO THE 940 TOP. THE 20 EMA IS AT 915.00 A GOOD 1ST TARGET. WE NEED AT LEAST A 3-4 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN TO SET THIS INDEX UP FOR ANOTHER "POTENTIAL" RUN. SPX---MAJOR "GRAVESTONE DOJI" FRIDAY. A CLIMAX BUYING SESSION LAST WEEK FOR SURE. THERE'S VERY HARD R AT A TRIPLE TOP AT 1050+ IT'S VERY OBVIOUS NOW. EVEN THOUGH IT BROKE OUT AT 1050 IT COULD NOT HOLD IT AND COULD NOT EXTEND IT HIGHER. 1020 THE 3 BOX REV DOWN. 1020 IS ALSO THE RISING 20 EMA DCC. 1018.77 IS THE 38.2% RETRACE AUG LOWS TO OCT HIGHS. THATS NICE SUPPORT FOLKS. IF WE BREAK THAT LOOKS LIKE 1007.75 OR THE 50% RETRACE WOULD BE NEXT. THE ALERT TO YOU ALL IS A BREAK OF 990...THATS RUN FOR THE HILLS. THE BP SPX IS AT A STRONG 80.96% IT HIT A DOUBLE TOP AT 82 BUT COULD "NOT" BREAK IT. SO FAR. A BREACH OF 72% IS DEATH AND TAXES. WE BECOME BEARS, YEAH LIKE IN "GROWLING SHORT SELLERS" HAHAHAHAHA..WHOA.. I EVEN LIKE THE SOUND OF IT...HEH HEH HEH OEX---SAME CHART SAME BAD LOOKING STICK ON FRIDAY...A BREAK OF 495 YOU BUY PUTS FAST. THE 50% RETRACE HERE IS AT 500 EVEN. GUESS WHAT THOUGH..IF WE RALLIED BACK UP OFF ANY NICE PULLBACK HERE AND TOOK OUT 530? THAT WOULD BE MONUMENTAL. THE BP OEX IS WEAKENING AS WE SPEAK. NOT GOOD. SPZ3---THE FUTURES---STRAIGHT UP FROM 988 TO 1052 A SENSATIONAL RUN EVERYONE...HAVE YOU SPOOS TRADERS EVER THOUGHT OF PLAYING A SWING TRADE IN THIS INDEX? USING P&F CHARTING? I COULD EASILY INCLUDE THAT IN THIS SECTION IF YOU WISH. 20 EMA IS AT 1031, 38.2% IS AT 1018 AND THE MIDDLE OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND IS AT 1012. 1056 IS A BREAKOUT BUY, WITH 1ST TARGET AT 61.8% AT 1073 THEN 100% AT 1100...DO NOT COUNT THAT OUT. ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE FOR THIS MARKET. IT'S VERY POWERFUL STILL. NQZ3---INDENTICAL SET UP AS THE ES, POWERFUL RALLY UP FROM 1310 TO 12440 THATS BIG. THE 20 EMA IS AT 1380, THE 38.2% 1350 MID OF THE 10 WEEK IS AT 1340. =============================================================================================== ALL IN ALL I AM LOOKING FOR MORE OF A PULLBACK THIS WEEK FOR 2-3 DAYS OR SO, THEN WE'LL ALL WATCH FOR THE FUNDS TO MOVE BACK IN HERE AND SEE WHERE THEY STEP UP TO THE PLATE. I WANT TO SEE IF THEIR BELLYS ARE FULL? OR THEY HAVE LUST FOR MORE STOCKS AT CHEAPER PRICES. YEAH LUST THATS IT<VBG> =============================================================================================== THIS IS A SHORT ALERT FOR ALL YOU NEWBIES OUT THERE. PEOPLE HAVE E-MAILED AND PM'D ME FOR THE CLASS DATES...LET'S SEE HOW MANY ARE INTERESTED TO ATTEND I WILL TAKE THE FIRST 9 STUDENTS. JUST E-MAIL ME AND LET ME KNOW. I AM THINKING OF HOLDING THESE SESSIONS AFTER HOURS OR IN THE EVENING. MAYBE EVERY OTHER DAY OR SO. IT WON'T BE A PERFECT SCHEDULE AS I AM BUSY TOO. MAKE SURE YOU'RE ALL SET UP WITH YOUR DATA FEEDS LIKE QCHARTS OR ESIGNAL, YOUR BROKERAGE ACCOUNT IS FUNDED AND READY TO GO. AND YOU HAVE TIME TO SIT THRU THIS INTENSIVE STUDY. IT AIN'T EASY BUT I SURE WILL MOVE YOU UP ABOVE THE MADDENING CROWD. AND THATS "IF" YOU FOLLOW MY STRICT RULES TO THE N'TH DEGREE..IF NOT YOU'LL FAIL MISERABLY. IT'S THAT SIMPLE. YOU STRAY OFF COURSE AND NOT USE STOPS? YOU'LL BE CRYING IN YOUR BEER. =============================================================================================== BTW FOR SOME UNGODLY REASON PEOPLE STILL CANNOT FIND THE PASSWORD FOR THE ROOM...SO I AM WRITING IT RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS NEWSLETTER......pullback...................GOT IT? ================================================================================================ WELL HOLD IT A SECOND SEEMS PALTALK ALL OF A SUDDEN IS NOT ACCEPTING MY CREDIT CARD ? SO I HAVE TO CALL IT IN TOMORROW..THAT MEANS THE ROOM WILL BE OPEN TILL I SQUARE IT AWAY. JUST ANOTHER PAIN IN THE A$$ PROBLEM..I DID FINALLY GET MY DSL LINE BACK..THANK GOD. =============================================================================================== OK LET'S CHECK ALL THE STOCKS ON OUR WATCH LIST THIS WEEK, EARNINGS GALORE. YOU ALREADY SEE HOW THE STREET IS TREATING THEM.. DO "NOT" HOLD THRU THE REPORT..PERIOD ENDED!!!!!! COMPRENDE'? PRE MARKET MMM REPORTS EPS. THIS COULD SET THE TONE FOR THE DAY...THE STREET EXPECTS GOOD NUMBERS HERE. JCOM---I AM LONG THIS STOCK AT 44.27 AND WILL SELL PRIOR TO EARNINGS. THE STREET LOVES THIS STOCK...45.00 THE BTL---43.90 THE SST AND MY STOP...EPS AH TOMORROW EVENING SLAB---DID A 3 BOX REV DOWN ON FRIDAY. SETTING UP FOR A POP MAYBE WE'LL SEE...54 IS A TRIPLE TOP BREAKOUT(B/O)...50.55 THE BTL---49.40 THE SST. EPS TOMOR AH TXN---SITTING RIGHT ON THE FENCE HERE FOLKS AT 25...27 IS A BIG 52 WEEK B/O, 22 IS A DOUBLE BOTTOM(DB) SELL SIGNAL...EPS AH MONDAY---25.55 THE BTL---24.40 THE SST AMGN---HEAVY SELLOFF IN THIS SHORT I TRADED LAST WEEK...THE DCC CHART LOOKS AWFUL AHEAD OF EPS TUES AH(AFTER HOURS)---STOCK IS TOUCHING THE BSL LINE HERE ON P&F. 63.60 THE BTL---62.45 THE SST AMZN---EPS AH MON ON A MAJOR HIGH POLE..DO THEY BEAT AND EXPLODE MORE? OR DO THEY COME IN SO SO AND DISAPPOINT. LOOKOUT HERE IF THEY MISS ALTOGETHER TALK ABOUT CRASH AND BURN FOLKS...60.20 THE BTL---59.05 THE SST..WATCH EBAY'S REACTION ALONG WITH YHOO AND ALL THE INETS..IMPORTANT REPORT..EPS TUES AH... EBAY---THE SYMPATHY PLAY...CAREFUL HERE IT COULD BE TROUBLE IF AMZN MAKES ANY NEGATIVE NOISE. 55.40 THE BTL---54.20 THE SST---HELD WELL THRU ALL THAT CARNAGE ON OP EX FRIDAY... CYMI---45.50 THE BTL---44.45 THE SST---THIS STOCK HAS EPS AH TUES, BUT THERE WAS IMPORTANT EARNINGS FROM ANOTHER COMPANY LAST WEEK A MAJOR PLAYER THAT CYMI PROVIDES 30% OF THE GOODS TO THEM. SO I GUESS WE COULD EXPECT A SOLID NUMBER. WE'LL SEE... CHARTS ARE SO SO AT BEST. ASIA---EPS AH TUES COULD EITHER HELP OR HINDER ALLTHE CHINA NETS. SITTING NEAR SOLID SUPPORT(S) AT THE BSL LINE AND A TRIPLE BOTTOM..CAN IT POP? WHO THE HECK KNOWS ON THESE STOCKS. 7.50 THE BTL---6.75 THE SST. SINA---VERY VOLATILE AS ALWAYS HEADING INTO EPS ON THE 27TH...NEEDS TO PRINT 43 TO START BACK UP AGAIN ON THE EARNINGS RUN. I AM LONG AND HOLDING. 40.60 THE BTL---39.45 THE SST RFMD---VERY EXTENDED HERE ON A "HIGH POLE" MAYBE THEY SELL THE NEWS HERE. HAS BEEN RALLYING SINCE JUNE WITHOUT A REVERSAL...MAYBE THE STREET KNOWS SOMETHING WE DON'T?<VBG>...DARK CLOUD COVER 3 STICKS BACK DCC CHART. 11.40 THE BTL---10.55 THE SST WBSN---VERY ORDERLY SOLID RALLY TYPE STOCK CHART. HIGHER HIGHS AND LOWS ALL THE WAY SINCE THE JUNE B/O---23.85 THE BTL---21.85 THE SST EPS TUES AH WSTL---LITTLE STOCK WITH A POSSIBLE POP COMING AHEAD AND INTO EPS TUES AH. LOW FLOAT SO BE USING LIMIT ORDERS IF YOU PLAY. NICE PB TO THE 20 EMA AHEAD OF EPS...8.95 THE BTL---8.30 THE SST---9.50 IS B/O DRIV---HAS EPS WEDS AH. SENSATIONAL CHART WE ALL TRADED IT BACK A BIT. ALREADY AT A 52 WEEK HIGH HERE. COULD GET A NICE SHOT AT THE 20 EMA AT AROUND 30.75 TO BUY IT THERE. 32.05 THE BTL---31.10 THE SST. ASKJ---EPS AH WEDS DOUBLE TOPPED LAST WEEK AT 22. SEEMS EXTENDED HERE WE'LL SEE. SITTING ON THE 20 EMA HERE. 21.35 THE BTL---20.25 THE SST KLAC---EPS WEDS AH BEARISH ENGULFING FRIDAY. TOUGH R AT 60.75 AREA SO FAR BUT IT DID BREAKOUT AT 60 LAST WEEK...59.15 THE BTL---58 THE SST SEEMS EXTENDED HERE. MERQ---EPS WEDS AH DOUBLE TOPPED AT 52 AND SOLD OFF HARD. SITTING AT THE 40 EMA DCC. BROKE THE ZERO LINE CCI. 48.10 THE BTL---46.95 THE SST... VRTS---JUST AN UNBELIEVABLE CHART FOLKS ONE GREAT B/O AFTER ANOTHER...IS IT PRICED TO PERFECTION? LET'S WATCH WHAT THE STREET DOES TO THIS STOCK WITH EPS WEDS AH. 34 THE BTL---32.85 THE SST. FDRY---JUST BROKE OUT LAST WEEK TO A 52 WEEK HIGH..SEEMS AMAZING TO SAY THAT OVER AND OVER AGAIN AND AGAIN "52 WEEK HIGHS". UNREAL. 23.50 THE BTL---22.45 THE SST...SITTING ON THE 20 EMA DCC. ZRAN---NEARING THE BSL LINE ON P&F MIGHT CATCH A BOUNCE UP AND INTO EPS ON THURS AH. VERY SHORT TERM OVERSOLD...19.30 THE BTL---18.45 THE SST. MSFT---THIS STOCK IS EITHER GOING TO EXPLODE OR DIE LIKE A DOG...12 STRAIGHT DAYS OF SIDEWAYS BASING HERE AHEAD OF EPS THURS AH IT'S A BIGGIE FOLKS I AM LONG AT 29.40 AND WILL HOLD. 29.50 THE BTL---28.50 THE SST. ================================================================================================= OK EVERYONE I'LL BE OUT EARLY TOMORROW FOR ABOUT 1-2 HOURS IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH ARLENE. I HOPE YOU ALL RESTED UP OVER THE WEEKEND AS I KNOW HOW VOLATILE THIS WEEK WILL BE..NO SERIOUS ECO REPORTS SO ALL THE FOCUS WILL BE ON EARNINGS. IN THE AM MMM KICKS THIS WEEK OFF WITH A BANG... STAY COOL HERE, THINK, FOCUS AND RELAX. BEST REGARDS JERRY jerry olson www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com jerry.olson@verizon.net