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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (67106)	10/30/2003 9:45:17 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Personally I think the safest leveraged bet on this planet is that Greenspan will be too scared to do anything. Rather than bank 100% on that, I picked a range of +- 1/4 where I am perhaps a 200% winner and +-1/2 where I am 50-100% winner, depending on timing. He has flat out stated he is "not raising interest rates for a considerable length of time" yet every idiot on the planet thinks he will. (either that or I am the idiot) He has proven his recklessness time and time again, and has even reconfirmed that recklessness. Why not take advantage of it? I was even generous and am allowing +- 1/4 in my calculations. Personally I think he will retire after the election and let someone else raise raite hoping to pin the collapse on the next person (assuming of course they can keep this house of cards together for another year). If they fail to do that, do you think they will be raising rates. Hell, I really think it is 50-50 that the next move is LOWER not higher. That's how nuts I think he is. M