Democrats Could Be History
In Kentucky, Recent Scandals Might Rewrite Tradition
By Edward Walsh
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, October 31, 2003; Page A05
VERSAILLES, Ky., Oct. 30 -- History rides along with A.B. "Ben" Chandler III as he campaigns for governor of his home state.
Early each morning, the state's Democratic attorney general leaves his home on a farm that has been in his mother's family since the 18th century here in the heart of Kentucky's green and gentle Bluegrass Country.
Campaigning around the state, he is constantly approached by people who remember his paternal grandfather and namesake, A.B. "Happy" Chandler, a former governor and senator from Kentucky who also served as baseball commissioner.
And when the attorney general returns home to Versailles at night and turns on the television set, he is reminded of more recent history -- the scandals that have engulfed the incumbent governor, Paul Patton (D), and appear to have given the Republicans their best chance in a generation to capture the governor's office when voters go to the polls Tuesday.
"It's time for a change" is a favorite political mantra, and never more so than this year in Kentucky. It is the central message of Chandler's Republican opponent, Rep. Ernie Fletcher, who is promising to "clean up the mess in Frankfort." Chandler, too, has embraced the change theme, but he is telling voters that he -- not Fletcher -- is the candidate who will bring that to the state capital.
Eight years ago, Republicans also believed that they were poised to win the governor's office, which Democrats have held since 1971. But a late surge by Patton shattered that dream. It has been a frustrating three decades for Republicans as they have watched Kentucky, like much of the South, become increasingly Republican but still cling to its Democratic heritage in elections for state offices.
This year, GOP officials vow, will be different.
"We were not prepared organizationally for what happened" in the 1995 campaign, said Ellen Williams, the Kentucky GOP chairwoman. "Ernie is by far the best candidate for governor that we've ever had, and we are better organized than the Republican Party has ever been in Kentucky."
After his first term, Patton was so popular that the Republicans put up only token opposition when he ran for reelection in 1999. Limited to two terms as governor, he was widely regarded as likely to challenge Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.) in next year's elections. But Patton's political career effectively ended last year when he first denied and then tearfully acknowledged having an affair with a woman who accused him of using state regulators to retaliate against her for ending the affair by giving a nursing home she owned poor inspection reports.
The woman, Tina Conner, has pleaded guilty to a federal charge of mail fraud in connection with a scheme to benefit her then-husband's construction company under a state program designed to help companies owned by women and minorities. She has said that Patton and the state transportation secretary, Jim Codell, "are as guilty as I am."
But it is Chandler who appears to be paying the highest political price in the aftermath of the revelations.
With a large assist from the Republican Governors Association, the Fletcher campaign has seen to that. The RGA is spending more than $1 million for television commercials in the state to hammer Chandler and tie him to Patton and "the mess in Frankfort." One ad contrasts Fletcher, "jet fighter pilot, family doctor, congressman," with Chandler, "just a lifelong politician" who in eight years as attorney general has proved that "he can't clean up the mess."
Chandler, 44, has portrayed Fletcher as a "lap dog" to the GOP leadership in Washington and business interests, particularly the pharmaceutical industry. Chandler is also getting outside help from the New Democrat Network, a Washington-based centrist group, which is spending almost $200,000 for 15-second television commercials boosting his candidacy and attacking Fletcher. But as Chandler rode to a campaign event in Louisville this week, he acknowledged his frustration with the assault on his record as attorney general.
In these circumstances, he said, Patton would be "a drag on Jesus Christ." Chandler said he has aggressively investigated the Patton administration but is being portrayed as a passive bystander to the scandals in Frankfort. "They act like I just sat in my office twiddling my thumbs, watching all this corruption," he said. "That's the entirety almost of the Fletcher campaign. It's a fraudulent campaign."
Fletcher, campaigning Thursday in western Kentucky, replied that Chandler "has spent more time grandstanding than doing his job. He's been there eight years. . . . We've had decades of incompetence in Frankfort, and he's part of it."
Fletcher, 50, in his third term in the House, is holding a nine-point lead in the race, according to the two most recent public polls. Even without the help of the RGA, he also has a financial advantage, having raised $5.1 million to Chandler's $3.2 million. Both President Bush and Vice President Cheney have held fundraisers for Fletcher, and Bush will return Saturday for rallies in western Kentucky, considered the key battleground area, and in the GOP stronghold in the southeastern part of the state.
Both campaigns say they expect the race to tighten in the closing days. Mark Nickolas, Chandler's campaign manager, said internal polls show a much closer contest than the public polls. "This is a competitive race that's jumping around," he said.
Daniel Groves, Fletcher's campaign manager, said one reason the race is likely to tighten is that "there is going to be a certain number of people who go home" to the Democratic Party. Today, Kentucky has the look of a GOP state. Both of its U.S. senators and five of its six House members are Republicans. But Democrats hold the edge in registered voters as well as all of the statewide elective offices that are decided in these off-year elections 12 months before the presidential election.
That is the history that the GOP is bucking, and Williams, the party chairwoman, knows it. She said that in the final days of the campaign, Republican organizers will target "the lazy voters," the ones who vote Republican in federal elections but tend to stay home when state offices are at stake. "We're getting ready to pour it on the last 72 hours," she said.
Kentucky Democrats are equally determined to get their voters to the polls on Tuesday. They imported Bob Corney, a Tennessee specialist in running statewide campaigns, to help the entire Democratic ticket here. He has directed an aggressive campaign of phone calls, door knocking and mail, using 65 full-time employees and 500 paid canvassers.
"It's what we do on Election Day that will make the difference," he said. "We're counting on winning it on the ground." |
