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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: sea_biscuit who wrote (484540)10/31/2003 2:16:18 PM
From: Original Mad Dog  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 769670
 
The only number that matters is how many people are unemployed -- REALLY unemployed, that is (the government statistics don't count people who are unemployed for more than a year, so that in a long spell where people keep losing jobs, REAL unemployment may be 15-20 percent while the government statistics might show only 5 or 6 percent

The government counts both people who are employed and those who are unemployed. It also counts the total personal income and total employment income.

Total employment income is up each of the last seven quarters:

bea.doc.gov

This shows in line 2 that Compensation of Employees (in billions; seasonally adjusted at annual rates) has steadily increased for at least the past 7 consecutive quarters:

2002Q1: $5,908.4
2002Q2: $5,963.9
2002Q3: $5,988.4
2002Q4: $6,017.4
2003Q1: $6,064.5
2003Q2: $6,094.5
2003Q3: $6,131.0

REAL unemployment may be 15-20 percent while the government statistics might show only 5 or 6 percent

The problem with statements like that is that IF they were true, the number of people employed would have shown a marked decline from the late 1990's until now. The total labor force is 146,545,000 as of September 2003. Of that number, 137,573,000 are employed:

bls.gov

It is widely cited that under Bush the U.S. economy has "lost" 3 million jobs. That is a bit of a loose use of language. Actually, according to the Labor Department, the number of employed people is up, from 136,891,000 in 2000 to 137,573,000 in September 2003. Due to the increase in the overall size of the labor force, however, the number of unemployed people is also up, from 5,692,000 in 2000 to 8,973,000 in Sept. 2003:

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.cpseea1.txt

Now, if huge numbers of people, to the extent of 15 to 20 percent of the population, had given up looking for work since 2000, then the total number of people in the workforce would be down and the total number of employed people would be down. But they're not. So, if those 15 to 20 percent of the people actually exist, they didn't have jobs when Clinton was President either.

And if 15 to 20 percent of the people have given up and exited the labor force, it is quite strange that overall personal income and employment income are up:


U.S. Personal Income totals (in Billions of dollars; months seasonally adjusted at annual rates)
Source: bea.doc.gov (Bureau of Economic Analysis)(see Table 1)
Personal Income (in billions)

Feb.: $9080.2
Mar.: $9102.0
Apr.: $9119.8
May: $9155.4
June: $9192.9
July: $9218.5
Aug.: $9247.7
Sep.: $9274.8

That shows that U.S. personal income has increased every month for the past seven months.

A different way of looking at it is the government's data on National Income by Type of Income:

bea.doc.gov.

This shows in line 2 that Compensation of Employees (in billions; seasonally adjusted at annual rates) has steadily increased for at least the past 7 consecutive quarters:

2002Q1: $5,908.4
2002Q2: $5,963.9
2002Q3: $5,988.4
2002Q4: $6,017.4
2003Q1: $6,064.5
2003Q2: $6,094.5
2003Q3: $6,131.0




To: sea_biscuit who wrote (484540)10/31/2003 2:40:07 PM
From: George Coyne  Respond to of 769670
 
ROTFL! When the employment numbers come up, you will find some other statistic which projects imminent doom!



To: sea_biscuit who wrote (484540)10/31/2003 2:55:15 PM
From: JakeStraw  Respond to of 769670
 
So what you're saying is that the bad numbers could even be better than reported...