Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mathemagician who wrote (54539)	11/1/2003 9:58:46 AM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

How would you address the situation in my reply to TigerPaw? Are we supposed to be smarter than the market? Strategies that appeal to the ego are the most dangerous. I believe that everyone is actually in a position of knowledge that makes them "smarter" than the market. But this allows them to invest in discrete stocks rather than in baskets of companies surrounding an industry. And there are more opportunities out there than just a few tech industries which might or might not spawn a Gorilla. Indeed, for every winning stock (or Gorilla for that matter), there are going to be individuals who recognized or bought into the value before the rest of the general market. Whether by luck or wisdom... well that's even hard to sort out in hindsight. Unfortunately however, selection bias plays a large part in identifying these wise sages, 'cause we have already dismissed as crackpots those who picked alternatives along the way. So my beef with Moore's theory is that he discounts the market in its ability to price risk into the equation. Not only into the Gorilla but into the numerous false positives that don't get the adequate air-time they deserve.