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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: goldsheet who wrote (96171)	11/1/2003 5:26:47 AM
From: winzer5	Respond to of 116762

What an Excellent Report! Shows why my Inco (N-T) is "just ah flying" the past couple of days. Winzer

To: goldsheet who wrote (96171)	11/1/2003 11:01:32 AM
From: TheSlowLane	Respond to of 116762

I always find Don Coxe's weekly comments to be worthy listening. Here are some choice parts from this week. Chart: US dollar Title: “The Pressure Builds” jonesheward.com What we have then, is as much of a goosing of the global economy as you’re ever likely to see. So, to those who say “Oh there’s all these problems out here, China’s going to have a banking system collapse and look at the debt load that is building up and look at demography.”...you can make all these cases and maybe in the longer run they will prove to be true, but, as Keynes said, “In the long run, we’re all dead.” At the moment, what you’ve got is a commodity-lead reflation, a USDollar-lead reflation and a subsidized interest rate on Eurodollars. It is not so much the Fed funds rate that matters - that is important - but The Big One is what the rate is on LIBOR. The Fed holding the rate where they are means that what we have is subsidized lending to the entire global corporate sector through the Eurodollar market...and that’s powerful stuff. Look for a strong global economic recovery next year and what that means is that you play that particularly through the commodities. I’m gratified by the move that we’ve had in the base metal stocks. But we’re still in the first movement of a three part sonata. It’s a pretty vigorous movement but it’s only “allegro”. We’re going to have a “presto” movement - the third movement - and the prices that you’re going to see for some of these mining stocks further out in the cycle will knock your socks off. But, we’ll have a “largo” movement in between. Wall Street is still expressing caution on the group. Some of my clients are wondering if it’s time to take some money off the table and my answer is “No!”. What you want is: - the wall of worry - the disbelief - insider selling - everyone that is in a decision making positions is still in survivor mode and just doesn’t believe that this time it will be different But we have not had these circumstances before, not for decades. Supply and demand are in balance, as a result of shutdowns. Reflation on a global basis is accompanied by a subsidized Eurodollar rate which just percolates right through the global economic system. This is so powerful that the people that are looking at this as being a short cycle thing [are missing the big picture] We’ve bottomed out this year for the base metals. The triple waterfalls [declines] are over. For those of you who are pleasantly surprised by how much money you are making on these stocks, don’t be tempted just because you’ve done so well on this, to sell them. I am not saying you don’t do some trading on them, I’m simply saying that the direction is still up. This is not a false dawn this time. You may think a lot of what Don says is false, but this is not a false dawn. We’re going to have substantially higher prices for the metals and what we’re going to have at some point, in the third movement, these are going to be defined as the new growth stocks again. And that will reprise the way they were described thirty years earlier. [There is] a full new generation out there that must repeat the mistakes of their parents. We’re a long way from that happening yet. These are still being regarded as beaten-up cyclicals, short-term trades, low-quality companies, crummy stocks, not ones you want to show much of in your portfolio because your clients will say you’re downgrading them…as long as we’ve got all that, there’s lots of upside.